NFL Picks Week 14, 1:00 o’clock games

 

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), O/U (41.5)

Miami is 0 and 2 since 1995 when they play the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Dolphins have a 2-6 record in their last 8 games against Pittsburgh and are on a 5 game losing streak against the Steelers overall. Ben Roethlisberger seems to have a knack for winning games late in the season at home when they mean something and the Steelers are 18-6 ATS at home over the past 24 games.

Gonna go with Pittsburgh here to cover the spread.
Take the under 41.5.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10), O/U (45)

New England plays every team tough at home and are coming in on a 5 game winning streak at home. The Browns are 1-4 against the Patriots in their last 5 meetings and are 1-4 against the spread versus the Patriots in their last 5 matchups. Cleveland is going off a tough loss to the Jaguars at home and now have to go on the road against a tough opponent in the Patriots.

Gonna take New England to cover the 10 point spread.
4 out of the past 5 games between Cleveland and New England have gone over the line. Gotta go with the OVER here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+2.5), O/U (44)

Kansas City and Washington have both not fared well against the spread in their last 6 games going just 1 and 5 ATS. Washington is on a 5 game losing streak against the Chiefs and haven’t covered the spread in those games either. With the Redskins struggling not looking to make the playoffs and Kansas City looking to get back on track against at team that head coach Andy Reid knows well, I expect this game to get oit of hand rather quickly.

Got to take the Chiefs to cover the 2 points.
Chiefs have gone UNDER the line in 14 of their past 20 games and Washington has gone UNDER the line in 8 of its past 12 at home. All signs pointing to the UNDER here.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5), O/U (53)

Detroit has gone under the line in 4 of their last six road games and the Eagles have also gone under the line in 5 of their past 6 homes games. Philadelphia is coming in hot and are 6 and 1 against the Lions at home in their past seven meetings. Detroit has covered the spread in the past two games against Philadelphia and with both teams looking to make a run at the playoffs its going to be a tight game. This game is going to come down to a field goal.

With that I’m going with the Eagles to win this one at home but the Lions WILL COVER the 2.5 point spread.
both defenses have been playing well of late which leads me to believe this is going UNDER the 53 point line.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5), O/U (44.5)

The Colts have beaten the Bengals 7 times in the last 8 meeting between the two and the Colts have covered the spread in those games 5 times. Cincinnati is just 2 and 6 against the spread when playing Indy at home in their last 8 meetings. The Bengals are coming off a 17 to 10 win over the Chargers in week 13 and they had their bye week during week 12. I think the Bengals are going to hit their stride this week and put up a bunch of points against the Colts defense through the air.

Take the Colts to cover the 5.5 in a low scoring game that will go UNDER the 44.5 point line.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), O/U (41.5)

Truly a toss up here with two rookie quarterbacks going head to head and two pretty good defenses both against the run and pass. EJ Manuel is heading back to the state where he spent his college career and will have a bunch of fans there pulling for him and that will play a factor in this game. Tampa Bay is 5 and 1 in their last six home games against the Bills and the Bills haven’t cover the spread in their past 5 games in Tampa Bay.

Gonna go with the Bills to win this game covering that 2.5 point spread.
The Bucs and the Bills have both gone OVER the line in 6 out of the last 8 games. Take the OVER again here.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3), O/U (41.5)

The Jets have played better of late at home this season going 4 and 2 in their past 6 home games. and are also 4 and 2 in their past 6 games against the Raiders. The Raiders will be relying on Rashad Jennings with Run DMC out with an ankle injury against the leagues best run defense so expect Matt McGloin to be throwing the ball a lot against a Jets secondary that has been struggling.

Gonna take the Raiders to COVER the spread in a nail biter with the Jets sneaking out the win but by less than 3 points.
It’s going to be a fast paced game with a lot of drives that end with long touchdowns so I’ve gotta go with the OVER 41.5 point line.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3), O/U (46.5)

Atlanta has really struggled this year but they have picked it up of late and I believe that Mike smith’s team will finish the season strong. Green Bay is good at home but they are still without Aaron Rodgers and have been struggling to find the endzone on offense. I think that will continue this week for Green Bay’s offense and the Packers defense will have to try to find pay dirt somehow and keep Matt Ryan at bay. I like the Falcons to upset the Packers here and get a much needed win in regulation by a touchdown.

Take the Falcons against the spread.
Gonna have to go with the UNDER, as I don’t expect much scoring from the Packers offense but their defense will keep the Falcons offense under 30 points.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6), O/U (42.5)

The Vikings have been playing surprisingly well in the past two weeks getting a win versus Chicago and tying with the Packers the week before that. Both of those games went into overtime. We could attest that to Minnesota’s defense and Adrian Peterson. The Ravens know that the Vikings are going to give AP a lot of touches and will probably challenge the Vikings wide receivers to beat them on the outside. Matt Cassel should be able to take advantage of the play action and hit his receivers and tight ends down the field. Baltimore has played really well at home all season but they haven’t scored that many points at home.

Gonna take the Ravens here to COVER the 6 point spread getting the win by a touchdown over Minnesota.
But I’m going to take the OVER on this 42.5 point line with both teams scoring into the twenties.

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Week 17: For all the Marbles

We find ourselves at 69% percent for the year ladies and gentleman. Let’s end this thing right shall we?

Marbles

 

SUNDAY

Only Sunday Games now, no whackass Thursday or Saturday Night games to mess with the NFL Original flow.

Eagles @ GIANTS – Win and get in with some help situation for the Giants. They will do their part against a once again Michael Vick-led Eagles squad. The G-Men have become notorious for stepping it up when they need to, but the Eagles have also been a thorn in their side as they showed earlier this year. Michael Vick is giving an audition to quarterback needy teams in this game, so expect him to play his hardest, unfortunately for the Giants and the fans at MetLife.

Buccaneers @ FALCONS – The Falcons will definitely rest some of their starters in this game, they may get the lead and then give it up later in the game must to the chagrin of the crowd, but they’d have to risk getting their starters injured. I don’t believe they are in the mindset of handing a game away to a divisional opponent and the Bucs are awful at stopping their opponents’ passing game. The Bucs on the other hand have some respect to play for and can show that their offense can match anybody’s. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons accepted a loss here.

Jets @ BILLS – The merry-go-round keeps turning for the Jets. Their quarterback situation is a mess and only got messier when McElroy was sacked eleven times and, naturally, suffered a concussion. The Jets, yet again, overlooked Tim Tebow who has made a life off of winning games and turned back to Mark Sanchez. It is being reported Mike Tannenbaum will be fired on Black Monday for his mismanagement of this team. The Bills are going to finish another mediocre season, but with the help of CJ Spiller and Mario Williams will most likely beat up on the slugging Jets.

Ravens @ BENGALS – This is revenge. The Bengals are the hottest team that nobody is paying attention to right now. They have won six out of seven games and it appeared they would be looking to next year when they sat at 3-6, but since they have looked like a well rounded team with a front seven that has developed into a force. The Ravens are coming off a statement win against the Giants in which I and most others underestimated them. With Jim Caldwell behind the helms of the offense, it looked like a force that many have thought it could be for a few years now.

Bears @ LIONS – The Bears have crumbled and are all different types of banged up coming into this game. I believe the Bears play their way out of playoff contention and the Lions light up the scoreboard against the Bears.

Jaguars @ TITANS – The Jaguars played a very tight game with the Patriots last week while the were blown out by Green Bay. These teams have both played very poorly all year long. Montell Owens vs Chris Johnson and Chad Henne vs Jake Locker. Some seriously nice matchups here (sarcasm).

Texans @ COLTS – I am picking the Colts in this game for one reason, Chuckstrong. The Texans may play themselves out of the bye and homefield here. The Texans are definitely the better team here but there is a Magic surrounding these Colts this year and especially at home that I cannot seem to deny this last game of the year.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts

Panthers @ SAINTS – Drew Brees last game of the year with news that Sean Peyton comes back next year with a nice big new contract? I’ll take him even with Cam Newton and his underrated defense playing solid down the stretch of the year. Both of these teams have underachieved all year, but the Saints find themselves in second place in the division after the Bucs have fallen apart. Maybe a new coach next year for the Panthers and Cam.

Browns @ STEELERS – No Steelers in the playoff, has a weird ring to it. The Steelers had a prime opportunity at home against the Bengals, but played poorly enough to lose that game. The Browns will be firing their head coach Pat Shurmur and starting fresh after this game. I would imagine that the Steelers would be firing Todd Haley after this year and the ineffectiveness of the offense since he came aboard. Big Ben will definitely love the support.

Chiefs @ BRONCOS – Broncos playing for the bye and possibly homefield, the Chiefs are playing a game. Let’s not joke around here. Peyton Manning has been either the Comeback Player of the Year or the MVP, whichever he doesn’t get Adrian Peterson will.

PACKERS @ Vikings – Aaron Rodgers is completing 70% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this year in dome games. The Packers put up 55 on the Titans last week for funsies. Adrian Peterson needs 209 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single season rushing record and as much as I want this machine to break it, I don’t believe he will because they will be playing from behind, even though their running game is what drives them. I think if Leslie Frazier sticks with it then and keeps running the ball to AP they can have a chance, don’t make Christian Ponder throw the ball.

Dolphins @ PATRIOTS – The Pats are also playing for a bye here. Tom Brady will get back his favorite target on a limited basis in Rob Gronkowski. The Dolphins have been fiesty all year under first year coach Joe Philbin and rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill. With a win the Dolphins could end up with a .500 record, but it won’t happen in Foxborough. The ‘Fins have not played great games in the colder weather this season.

Raiders @ CHARGERS – Terrelle Pryor will get his first career start after the Carson Palmer was knocked around last week. The Raiders and Chargers met in their first game of the year, an ugly one, and paved the way for their ugly seasons. The Chargers are coming off a beating of the Jets where they sacked Greg McElroy 11 times. The Chargers will be looking at a new front office and coaching staff, finally, next year.

Cardinals @ 49ERS – The 49ers need this win to clinch the division. Brian Hoyer will get the start. The Cardinals defense has been fierce all year and is the main reason they have won a game in the past 11 weeks. The 49ers defense has been simply better and besides when they got blown up last week by the underrated and streaking Seahawks have been one of, if not, the best defense in the league.

Rams @ SEAHAWKS – Jeff Fisher has coached up this Rams team, mostly their defense. Something is in the defenses’ waters in the NFC West this year because they are all solid. Sam Bradford has been limited this year with developing and injury prone receivers (mostly his best target Danny Amendola). The ‘Hawks are coming off a destruction of the 49ers on national television last Sunday night and are aiming for 8-0 at home this year. No reason they won’t win this game as Russell Wilson continues his ridiculous rookie season, which has been unfortunately overlooked by many because of RGIII and Andrew Luck. Any other season he wins the Rookie of the Year, and he still might this year. He will tie or break Peyton Manning’s rookie single season touchdown record today.

Cowboys @ REDSKINS – Both of these teams came back from “dead” in the NFC East to now be playing for the division title on Sunday Night Football, second consecutive year that the division title will be decided on the last day on NBC. The Cowboys have ridden a red-hot Tony Romo until last week where the Saints played spoiler. The Redskins have now won 6 straight games since starting 3-6 and RGIII is not 100%, but he is still very dangerous with his arm. The home crowd will be pumped and I’m sure the Cowboys will make some mistakes and their defense is just as banged up as the Redskins.

Seems like I like the home teams in these Week 17 matchups.

siren

UPSET ALERT – Anything goes in these games, I’ll put everyone on Upset Alerts this week.

BYEAHHHHH!!!!

BYEAHHHHH!!!!

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SURVIVOR PICK – Let’s go with the Patriots here. (If picked already: 49ersBroncosSteelers)

Week 15: Who makes a Playoff Run?

We have placed ourselves back into double digit victory discussion, with a 10-6 week.

CHEEESEEEE!!!

CHEEESEEEE!!!

A lot has happened over the past week in the NFL, the former NFL Commissioner has dropped the suspensions of players related to the Saints bounty case and now Roger Goodell is talking about expanding the playoffs (of course to talk the heat off of himself for suspending players that were now exonerated for such actions.) Let’s jump into this week’s picks where now the going gets tough and the playoff contenders get going.

THURSDAY

BENGALS @ Eagles – The Eagles stunned the Buccaneers and their playoff hopes with 2 seconds left on the clock last week. The Bengals defense is better than the Buccaneers as a whole and won’t have a problem getting to rookie Nick Foles in the backfield. They must contain Bryce Brown, which seemed natural for those Bucs last week (they sport the #1 run defense, however.) Andy Dalton became the third quarterback, with Marino and Peyton Manning being the other two, to eclipse twenty touchdowns in his first two seasons. Dalton and A.J. Green have remarkable chemistry and now A.J. Green has to get over a sure touchdown drop last week in an upset by the Cowboys. Go Bengals here because they want and need it more.

SUNDAY

GIANTS @ Falcons – A lot to prove for both teams here. The Giants can prove they can still be the team to beat from the NFC, and the Falcons are trying to prove they have become that team. It is a rematch of the Wild Card playoff round last year in which the Giants romped the Falcons 24-2 in the Meadowlands. There will be no Ahmad Bradshaw so the rookie David Wilson will carry the load against a bad run defense. The Falcons come back to Georgia after a bad loss to Cam Newton and Cam Newton only, so they will be angry.

PACKERS @ Bears – After the first matchup the Bears went on a tear and it seemed they had climbed to the top of the NFC North, but in the past five weeks they’ve looked like a completely different team. That’s what injuries and a bad offensive line will do to you. The Packers on the other hand have ascended to the top of the NFC yet again. They are getting healthy at the right time and rookie running back Alex Green is beginning to step up. The Bears need to keep Jay Cutler upright, and that is going to be tough with Clay Matthews getting ready to play. Good Luck, Jay.

Ouch-town population you, Jay

Ouch-town population you, Jay

Redskins @ BROWNS – Kirk Cousins is going to get the start for the ‘Skins in Cleveland. Cousins has proved he can step into games and take over with his arm, not his legs like RGIII. The Redskins need him to be big, but it’s going to be tough against a suddenly good defense. Another rookie quarterback needs to step up for the ‘Skins against a rookie quarterback for the Browns. I think the Browns have been rejuvenated the past few weeks and it’s weird typing that. I take the Browns here in the upset.

Vikings @ RAMS – Adrian Peterson will continue to light up the world, but Christian Ponder will continue to be lit up by the world. The Rams defense is good and underrated, but are better against the pass than the run, lucky for the Vikings robot running back. Peterson needs to average 169 yards over the final three weeks to surpass Eric Dickerson’s rushing record. While I think Adrian Peterson is the greatest back of our generation, I don’t believe he will do it, as much as I want him to. I am picking the Rams because Sam Bradford > Christian Ponder.

Jaguars @ DOLPHINS – The Jaguars just called me up and asked me to play running back. I respectfully declined, of course. The Dolphins sport another underrated defense and a rookie quarterback that has shown flashes of maturity and serious potential. Chad Henne has a grasp on the starting job, but struggled mightily last week without his favorite target in Cecil Shorts. Shorts will be back this week, but I don’t think their defense is good enough to win this game. Montell Owens almost had 100 yards against the Jets last week, but the Dolphins sport a much better run defense. Dolphins based on a talent standpoint.

Buccaneers @ SAINTS – Bad thing for the Saints: Buccaneers rank #1 against the rush. Good thing for the Saints: They don’t typically run the ball very much especially at home. Josh Freeman and his Bucs are coming off a shocking loss Nick Foles’ Eagles that knocked them out of the playoffs. This will be a high-scoring game if you ever see one. Brees and Freeman better be locked into all fantasy lineups this week. Brees in the Superdome trying to ruin playoff lives from here on out!

BRONCOS @ Ravens – Peyton is doing what Peyton does. Just running things in the NFL week by week. Moreno has stepped up mightily since Willis McGahee went to the I.R. and the defense has been steady all year as a top 5 NFL defense. The Ravens’ record does not indicate how the good the team is, because their 9-3 record is an overestimation of this team. Their defense is not the same and they need to realize it, their offense just fired its offensive coordinator after another disappointing year, except this time they won’t give the ball to their best player as much. The Broncos are the better team and it will show in Baltimore today.

Colts @ TEXANS – I have to be honest, I like those Texans letter-man jackets. I have to be honest, I can’t believe they worse those. The Texans defense was embarrassed on national television. The Patriots exploited all of their weaknesses with all the injuries they have suffered. The Colts are coming off another comeback win against a bad Titans team. Andrew Luck is still playing poorly on the road, but against this shaky secondary it’s hard to not believe in him putting up numbers today. The Texans are still the better team and will come out with full force in Reliant Stadium.

SEAHAWKS @ Bills – Seattle is underrated let’s get that out of the way. “Pint-sized” quarterback Russell Wilson has led this team to becoming a contender, the biggest problem is, most of their wins come at home. The Bills excel at one thing and that’s running the ball, and the Seahawks excel both defensive aspects. The Seahawks will make the playoffs, unfortunately for them they will not host any games. The Bills just lost at home to the Rams after having the lead. The Bills front-office won’t stop talking about the status of their franchise quarterback and it’s a flip-flop every week. They should focus on their weekly opponent instead of on who their quarterback NEXT year is going to be.

Darren Sharper ... Hold ma  ****

Darren Sharper … Hold ma ****

LIONS @ Cardinals – The Cardinals defense has to keep them in this game. Good luck! It’s the Ryan Lindley show again in ‘Zona. Let’s see how good the Lions defense looks this week against the Cardinals because typically they make everyone look like top 10 defenses. Patrick Peterson wants one on one against Megatron who is moving toward Jerry Rice’s single-season record. Imagine if the rushing and receiving record are broken in one year, but two non-playoff teams, intriguing.

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Panthers @ CHARGERS – This may not be as high-scoring as everyone would think. The Chargers sport a pretty good defense that was able to abuse the Steelers last week before they gave up some garbage time touchdowns. Cam Newton is on a tear right now, but I believe that won’t continue today in San Diego. However, Philip Rivers probably won’t play well either. I think this will be pretty ugly from a bunch of underachieving teams.

STEELERS @ Cowboys – Toss-up of the week here. I think the Steelers know how to win these games and the Cowboys typically lose these even at home. I don’t believe Dez will make that big of an impact. The Cowboys need this win or they can count themselves out of the playoffs, on the other hand the Steelers can put themselves out of the playoff spot with a loss. Their bigger game is next week against the Bengals, but they usually don’t look ahead.

Chiefs @ RAIDERS – The “yikes” game for the week. Expect a lot of Jamaal Charles and a lot of punts. Both of these teams have been hopeless causes all year and the Chiefs were destroyed by the Browns last week, while the Raiders lost to the Broncos before the game even started. I pick the home team in this matchup.

49ers @ PATRIOTS – This is the game of the week, but the Patriots showed they are still the team to beat. They took it to the Texans and early. The 49ers better be ready to go as soon as the ball is kicked. Kaepernick has come down to earth recently and hasn’t had to take the games over like he did the first couple of games. The 49ers are 1st in defense and the Pats are 1st in offense, so what will give?

MONDAY

JETS @ Titans – Easily the worst Monday Night game of the year. I pick the Jets because the Titans are bad and the Jets are better. Mark Sanchez didn’t play well again last week when the Jets inched out a win against the Jaguars without their best receiver. Jake Locker is the most erratic quarterback in the NFL. The guy looked great last week after looking like a college quarterback since coming back from his injury. Mark Sanchez cannot turn the ball over for the Jets to win, but for the Titans to win Chris Johnson has to go off and Kenny Britt cannot be dominated by Antonio Cromartie.

siren

UPSET ALERT – I am putting the Texans, the Vikings , the Falcons and the Redskins on upset alery.

tom-hanks-in-cast-away

 

Survivor Pick – First of all if you’re still in survivor pools, just good for you. This week I’ll take the Lions to keep it going. (If picked already: BengalsTexans, and Seahawks.)

Week 14: Nestle Crunch Time!

The double digit wins streak is gone with a 9-7 record last week. Some surprise victories did us in. This week should be better as we have come to the point of the season where no surprises happen, typically. On the year we are sitting at  132-59-1 for a 69% correctness.

Let’s get into it with only four weeks left!

THURSDAY

BRONCOS @ Raiders – This will be a “snoozer”. The Broncos are missing their number one running, but gave an enormous workload to newly anointed starter in Knowshon Moreno. The Raiders’ Carson Palmer is having a good year, but most of his statistics are coming in garbage time. This should be an easy win for the rolling Broncos.

SUNDAY

Rams @ BILLS – I am picking the Bills because they are playing at home and I am certain it is cold outside. The Rams defense isn’t as solid as their run defense, and the Bills are starting to realize their best game-plan is to not force Ryan Fitzpatrick to win them the game, but rather leave it up to their run game. The Rams think they have a shot at the playoffs, but not if Danny Amendola doesn’t play. I want to pick the Rams because they are underrated in my book and bad on the road, 1-3-1. It’s going to be cold and rainy in Buffalo, not good for a passing game.

Cowboys @ BENGALS – The Cowboys just lose their starting nose tackle and now are down to their third string. Tony Romo is going to have a tough time against the Bengals front four, which will have an easy time against the Cowboys bad offensive line. The Bengals will be able to run the ball and throw the ball on a banged up and now very underachieving Bengals defense. It may be a high scoring game however and both teams need the game to stay alive in the playoff chase.

Chiefs @ BROWNS – Only a few words can describe this game: “Man, I hope this isn’t televised.” The Chiefs are coming off a very emotional win, which yours truly predicted correctly. Jamaal Charles needs to go over 100 yards, because nobody should expect the same game from Brady Quinn we saw last week against a bad Panthers defense. The Browns defense is underrated and with Joe Haden guarding Dwayne Bowe, don’t expect much production out of him. The Chiefs will need to have an answer for Trent Richardson and the new #1 receiver on the Browns, Josh Gordon.

Titans @ COLTS – The Titans can’t keep the ball on offense. Jake Locker was looking like he could develop into a good quarterback at the beginning of the season, but it appears that the injury has hindered him. Chris Johnson might have a field day with this Colts run defense, enough to keep them in this game. Andrew Luck will lead his team to another home victory and hopefully with his own touchdowns (for my fantasy team). No Donald Brown for the Colts, which leaves them with a very sub-par running game.

BEARS @ Vikings – I know Brian Urlacher is the leader of the defense, but there are enough play-makers on that team to take over the role. Jay Cutler’s offensive line needs to play better in the face of trash-talking by both teams opposing lines. Cutler will keep abusing Brandon Marshall in the target department as long as their both still living. The Vikes will once again lean heavily on their robot running back, Adrian Peterson. If he can take the pressure of Christian Ponder the Vikings have a chance.

Chargers @ STEELERS – The coach and general manager of the Chargers have already been named soon-to-be victims of the disappointing season experience in San Diego. They were unfortunate to arrive in Pittsburgh with Big Ben returning to good health. The Steelers are more than happy to have their signal caller back healthy so that they can leave their turnover-happy woes behind them. Expect the Steelers to win this one easily.

Eagles @ BUCCANEERS – Nick Foles is starting to look better and not completely incompetent in that offense. Bryce Brown is running a muck in the NFL and seems to be the hottest back besides Adrian Peterson in the NFL. They’re bigger problem now is their failing leaky defense that will get no mercy from the Bucs juggernaut offense. The Bucs need this game to stay in playoff contention because with a loss and any teams in front winning can count themselves out. Doug Martin has seen the box stacked a lot in the past few weeks.

Ravens @ REDSKINS – The Ravens’ record does not show their fault, but the highlights and tapes do. They are not as solid as their 9-3 record would have you believe, but they find a way to win games. Joe Flacco is having another disappointing season, and Cam Cameron appears to not want to lean on Ray Rice every game, which worked in the past (head-scratcher as to why you wouldn’t.) RgIII played a great game Monday night, but was helped certainly by a fluke play on the first touchdown and then by the ineptness of the Giants’ offense in the fourth quarter. The Ravens won’t have an answer for him, but expect some points here.

qm rg

FALCONS @ Panthers – The Falcons are coming off a huge win to their “daddy”. This is a typical let down game, but the Panthers just hit rock-bottom after losing to the Chiefs. Asante Samuel probably won’t play here leaving the Falcons somewhat thin in the secondary. The Panthers haven’t beaten the Falcons in three years now. Matt Ryan isn’t putting up the same numbers as he was at the beginning of the year, because teams have adjusted to the passing game plan of the Falcons. Expect some scoring here as well.

JETS @ Jaguars – Another ugly won that I know will be on television in New York. The Jets turned to Greg McElroy last week, only to turn back to Mark Sanchez (which I predicated) this week, but this is a completely different defense they faced last week. The Jags are down to their fourth string running back and will be without Cecil Shorts. Cromartie will be pinned to Justin Blackmon leaving the Jags only weapon Mercedes Lewis. This will not be pretty or enjoyable unless your a Jets fan.

Saints @ GIANTS – The Giants are doing exactly what we’ve come to expect. Roll through the first half of the year and then start to swoon, but win the games they need to in order to find their way into the playoffs on a hot streak. The Saints need this win to even have a chance, but it’s a very slim chance. Drew Brees does not play as well outside as he does indoors, but coming off 3+ interception days (he’s had five of them), Drew Brees has thrown 17 touchdowns and 4 interceptions (not good for the Giants’ secondary). Expect the Giants pass rush to disrupt Brees because they couldn’t get to RGIII last week and they don’t have consecutive bad games.

Dolphins @ 49ERS – This 49ers defense will have their way with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill, especially Aldon Smith (the NFL’s sack leader) because Jake Long is now on the I.R. Colin Kaepernick is coming off a bad game against the Rams defense and almost another tie. The Dolphins are scrappy so this might be closer than one would think, but the 49ers should take this one.

Cardinals @ SEAHAWKS – Has one team ever had more home-field advantage in a single season? The 12th man in Seattle is something else and it will continue this week with the lowly Cardinals coming into town. John Skelton has been re-injected into the #1 spot on the depth chary after Ryan Lindley’s awful and abysmal performance, which left many wondering why Ken Whisenhunt didn’t replace him at halftime. The Seahawks are coming off a huge win against the Chicago Bears in overtime and will look to keep a hold on the last wild card spot in the NFC.

Lions @ PACKERS – The Lions are definitely the most disappointing and under-achieving team this year. Lots of talent, lots of promise but not enough of the “it” factor to put games away and keep themselves winning like last year. It’s a shame because Calvin Johnson’s possible MVP year is going to waste. Megatron is on pace to break Jerry Rice’s receiving yards record in a single season, and most likely won’t slow up even facing more double teams now that the Lions are depleted at wide receiver. The Packers are just sledding along toward the playoffs with a bunch of injuries of their own, but their guys will be healthy come playoff time.

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MONDAY

PATRIOTS @ Texans – This is a fantastic game and definitely the game of the week. Possibly the best matchup ESPN picked for Monday Night Football all year long. The Pats certainly miss Gronkowski, but Aaron Hernandez is getting healthier and Tom Brady will definitely find much more now. Their defense has been getting better and has been forcing a large amount of turnovers. The Texans are sitting at a nice 11-1 with a playoff spot locked up. Their defense is slowing up with all of their injuries and the Patriots offense will definitely exploit this. Expect a barn-burner here.

siren

UPSET ALERT – I am putting the Falcons, the Bearsand the Ravens on Upset Alert.

tom-hanks-in-cast-away

SURVIVOR PICK – Colts (If Picked already: Seahawks, and Broncos)

 

Week 13: No Mo No Shave!

Men’s favorite month and women’s least favorite month has come to an end and it’s time to get rid of those furry things on your face gentleman. The playoffs are coming in the NFL quickly and this season has definitely flown by. We come into this week after a 10-6 showing last week. Definitely not the best we’ve had, but the double digit wins won’t stop rolling in.

Here we go ....

Here we go ….

THURSDAY

SAINTS @ Falcons – The Saints need this game to stay alive, but the Falcons might need this game for the respect and to show that they have gotten over that divisional hump that has haunted them since Drew Brees arrived in the NFC South. The last game was a nail-biter and a eye catcher for the NFL and I don’t expect any less from this one. The Saints will win because they need it to stay alive, but I am honestly not sure about this because the Falcons play so much better at home.

SUNDAY

Jaguars @ BILLS – It’s one thing to beat a bad Titans team at home, but it’s another thing to go to freezing cold Buffalo and beat a bad Bills team. The Bills looked flat against the Colts defense and the Jaguars looked like a decent team against the lowly Titans. Chad Henne has sparked some life into Mike Mularkey’s team, but now with both of the Bills running backs healthy, there’s no reason to believe they won’t be able to handle the Jags at home.

Seahawks @ BEARS – The Seahawks are a different team at home than they are away. I think they can pull the upset here because of their defense and how banged up the Bears offensive line is, but Russell Wilson cannot turn the ball over, which is nearly impossible to do against this Bears defense. However, Colin Kaepernick did it and he is mobile and elusive, just like Wilson is so who knows. Brandon Marshall has been targeted 121 times by Jay Cutler, you think they have a nice connection?

Colts @ LIONS – Another team that plays completely different at home compared to away from home. Andrew Luck and the Colts are bipolar and cannot seem to find grounding away from home with a 2-3 record and a 5-1 record at home. However, Andrew Luck has been an outstanding rookie this year. On the other side of the ball the Lions have not performed up to the expectations placed upon them this year. I see the Colts away woes to continue as the Lions offensive fire power will be too much to handle and the Lions vicious defensive line will be at Andrew Luck.

Vikings @ PACKERS – The Packers got rolled by the Giants at MetLife Stadium Sunday night. They might have been better off not showing up. They have key injuries on defense and some on offense, but it’s no excuse to play so poorly and they know that. They will definitely be a different team this Sunday against their division rivals from Minnesota. Adrian Peterson still had a great game even after fumbling the ball twice to the Bears. This game is always a hard-fought win for whomever comes out on top, but I fully expect the “Cheeseheads” to take a few Lambeau leaps this Sunday.

TEXANS @ Titans – Some of the experts have been saying that the Texans have been walking a fine line, and they have been and that’s the reason I picked them to lose last week. However, when you are gifted a game like they were like last week I don’t see this team taking anything for granted this weekend. The Titans are also not as talented as the Detroit Lions. The Titans are coming off a bad BAD loss to the Jaguars and things can’t get worse, so why can’t they win?

Panthers @ CHIEFS – Two days ago I would’ve picked the Panthers hands down with the way this Chiefs team is playing. After the sad passing of Javon Belcher I cannot pick against the emotional team here. This Chiefs team is not better than their opponent, but emotion wins in any fight. The Panthers allowed Bryce Brown and the Nick Foles led Eagles to stay in a game they should have handled with ease on Monday Night last week. I think the Chiefs will be ready to play Sunday for their “brother”.

49ERS @ Rams – Man I hope this game doesn’t end in a tie. Colin Kaepernick has been exciting to watch, but now Alex Smith has been benched for playing the way Jim Harbaugh has asked him to and because he got a concussion. Seriously? They are winning their games, not that they weren’t before. The Rams #1 option will not be playing as he is hurt again, that is Danny Amendola. This just makes the sledding that much tougher for the Rams, but I can see this being a close game again as long as Bradford keeps the ball out of the 49ers’ defense hands.

PATRIOTS @ Dolphins – The Pats have blown up scoreboards the past two weeks and I have no doubt it won’t stop this week in warm Miami. The Patriots defense is forcing turnovers, which they’ve been known to do over the year and will definitely continue Sunday against rookie Ryan Tannehill. This Dolphins team has been scrappy all year long, but it’s time for the Pats to put a stake through their season. The addition of Aqib Talib has already helped the Patriots secondary.

Eerie isn't it?

Eerie isn’t it?

Cardinals @ JETS – I want to pick the Cardinals, but I don’t know which one of their quarterbacks is actually going to get playing time in this game. As one of my friends told me, when the Jets win, they win handily. If Ryan Lindley starts the Jets win in a blowout, but if anyone else starts it’ll be a harder win for the Jets, who have had more media attention for the past few years than any other underachieving team. Tim Tebow will not be dressed, but Greg McElroy finally will be. Why not give the Alabama champion a shot?

Buccaneers @ BRONCOS – Tough loss for the Bucs against the Falcons last week. They should have won that game plain and simple, as many teams should have against the Falcons. Josh Freeman didn’t throw a touchdown pass last week, but his offense still put up a ton of yards. The Broncos are coming off a disappointing lackluster performance in Kansas City. Even though they won the game, it looked like the worst complete game for Peyton Manning this year. Knowshon Moreno has emerged as the new starter since Willis McGahee’s injury, surprising a lot of people by leaping up the depth chart.

Cleveland @ RAIDERS – Two bad teams at 3-8 and I’m going with the home team. The Browns have been in every game they’ve played and just beat the Roethlisberger-less Steelers. So, this is now a let down game in a place that many teams find it tough to win, the Black Hole. The Raiders are struggling all around on defense and Carson Palmer has to force everything to try and get his team back in the game, but he has now thrown for over 3,000 yards with 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Raiders here because they are at home.

BENGALS @ Chargers – Andy Dalton has led this team in surprising fashion with a new high-powered offense. The Defense is coming along for these Bengals, after playing poorly in the first half of the season. Philip Rivers and Norv Turner can’t turn this season around, or finish it any sooner. If they lose this game or the Broncos win the Chargers are basically eliminated from playoff contention because one of the teams they are chasing would be the one who beats them today. Norv Turner is finished in San Diego, finally.

Steelers @ RAVENS – No Ben, no win for the Steelers. The Defense has been doing anything and everything to stay in games, but when you are on the field for as long and as much as this defense is, you are bound to lose. The offense turned the ball over eight times last week and that never bodes well. Ray Rice converted a 4th and 29 last week on a check down pass, and that speaks more for the Chargers season than anything. Ravens win this one because Charlie Batch is no Ben.

True Story

True Story

Eagles @ COWBOYS – On Nick Foles first drive against the Cowboys a few weeks ago, he hit Jeremy Maclin on a bomb. Since then it’s been forgettable for Foles. He let Bryce Brown do the work last week against the Carolina Panthers, but he will have to make some throws against a much better Cowboys defense this week. Tony Romo tried his hardest to bring the Cowboys back from dead on Thanksgiving against the Redskins. With DeMarco Murray expected back, Jason Garrett gets a capable back in his backfield. Tony Romo’s job becomes a little easier now as long as DeMarco can stay healthy.

GIANTS @ Redskins – The Giants are road warriors. RG3 is a beast. This will be a good Monday Night matchup with two divisional foes who each need this win. The Redskins need it to stay alive in the playoff race because the Wild Card is closing quickly in this tough NFC, but the Giants need this win to pad their lead as their schedule becomes harder over the next three weeks with the Saints, the Falcons and the Ravens looming. The Giants looked like the Champs last week against a 38-10 thrashing of the Packers and RG3 didn’t look like a rookie against the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving. Giants in a squeaker here.

siren

 

UPSET ALERT – I am putting the Giants, the Panthers ,the Bears, and the Colts on Upset Alert. The Giants lost both games last year to the lowly Redskins, but their better offensively this year. The Panthers are playing a defeated team that was just struck by tragedy and it’s always to play a team with that kind of emotion. The Colts are just not the same playing away from home. The Bears offensive line is still horrendous and the Seahawks defense is still very physical.

tom-hanks-in-cast-away

 

SURVIVOR PICK – Patriots (If Picked already: Texans, Cowboys and Ravens).

Week 12: Turkey for Everyone!

Do you like apples … I went 13-1 last week … So how do you like them apples? (Thanks, Matt Damon).

The double digit wins just won’t stop coming and I’ll continue to aim for that undefeated week as we near our end here. It’s one of my favorite times of the year, Thanksgiving. Lots of food and all day long Football, its like a pre-Sunday feast. Happy Thanksgiving to all!

THURSDAY

Texans @ LIONS – The Texans are due for a let down loss. Matthew Stafford has been catching fire recently and the Lions defense is getting more banged up each week. The Texans were teetering on the edge of a letdown against the Jaguars (REALLY???) last week. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub and Arian Foster have been lighting up of late in fantasy scoreboards. I expect a hard-fought battle but the Lions to come out on top.

REDSKINS @ Cowboys – RG3 is going to have his way with the Cowboys defense. Romo and the offense are too sluggish in games this year to keep up with Griffin’s offensive swagger. Romo can’t stay upright still with a beleaguered offensive line. The Redskins defense will have to be in the backfield and the Cowboys defense will have to contain RG3’s running, but watch out for his rocket launcher. Redskins do what many can’t do and beat Romo in November.

PATRIOTS @ Jets – The Pats destroyed Andrew Luck’s Colts. They suffered a huge loss in Rob Gronkowski’s forearm, and the rest of him. It won’t matter much, he definitely will be missed, but Brady will spread those targets out elsewhere. The Jets are coming off a much-needed win at St. Louis, but they will be surely outclassed on Turkey Day. Pats in a blowout.

SUNDAY

Vikings @ BEARS – I fully expect Adrian Peterson to run a muck, but with Cutler playing the Bears offense will be able to put up some points. Without Cutler, the Bears offense was barely able to move the ball with Jason Campbell behind center. Christian Ponder will be facing a lot of pressure staring down the turnover-happy Bears defense. Expect a good cold-weather rivalry game here.

Raiders @ BENGALS – Marcel Reece is the bright spot for the Raiders’ offense, but that’s because it appears without Darren McFadden the offense runs through him quite literally. The Bengals looked great against the Chiefs, but who hasn’t really this year. At home, I expect Andy Dalton and AJ Green to have their way with the Raiders.

STEELERS @ Browns – I know Charlie Batch is starting, but he started last year and the Steelers started 3-1. Ridiculous, I know, but I can’t pick against them while they are playing the Browns. Brandon Weeden shows signs of progression at times in games, but then looks just plain bad. The young receivers on the Browns are just that, young and still developing. Trent Richardson is banged up and you know the Steelers hit hard. Expect a low-scoring game.

Bills @ COLTS – Andrew Luck has thrown 8 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in home games and 4 touchdowns to 10 interceptions away from home. Talk about home field advantage. Against a bad Bills’ defense I don’t expect this parity to change. The Bills played a good game against the Dolphins in which Fitzpatrick didn’t need to force any mistakes. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson expect to carry heavy loads against a bad Colts run defense. Andrew Luck stays great at home.

BRONCOS @ Chiefs – Brady Quinn again really? Blowout and enjoy the fantasy points everyone who has somebody on the Broncos. Kepe an eye on Ronnie Hillman.

SEAHAWKS @ Dolphins- This Seahawks’ defense will pressure Ryan Tannehill into making mistakes. The warm weather will certainly be a change for Russell Wilson, but isn’t that always a welcoming change. The Dolphins defense hasn’t been as sound recently as it was the first eight or nine weeks. The Dolphins have started to lean on a timeshare, when Reggie Bush is still clearly the better back, but maybe they’re preparing for life after Reggie, who knows. Seahawks, because of their defense here, but always be wary of the West Coast team going east to play at 1.

Falcons @ BUCCANEERS – The Falcons played with fire again last week and almost lost. They will do the same here and will get burned because this team actually has an offense unlike that Arizona team. The Falcons have Julio Jones hurting, but he will play through it as it appears he has gotten better through the week. The Bucs are firing on all cylinders after making a nice comeback against a bad Panthers team last week that always plays their divisional foes tough. The Bucs will win this at home in a shootout. Expect a lot of fantasy points.

TITANS -@ Jaguars – Chad Henne went HAM last week against the Texans … some things hurt when you type and confuse you when you type them. The Titans had a week to rest and get Jake Locker back into the offensive groove because he looked awful in a blowout of the Dolphins two weeks ago. The Jags sorely miss Maurice Jones-Drew and should pay the guy. They are fighting for the #1 draft pick, but who knows if they should take a quarterback with it. Titans here easily as long as Chad Henne goes back to his normal play.

RAVENS @ Chargers – The Ravens still haven’t really looked like a championship team, but they win games. Phillip Rivers has found a new play toy in the form of Danario Alexander, who always had great potential but couldn’t stay healthy. The Chargers are probably not going to compete for a playoff spot this year because they’re not consistent on either side of the ball. The Ravens need to get the ball to Ray Rice more, and I’ve been saying it all year. It will catch up with them, but not this week.

49ers @ SAINTS – The Saints are high-powered and high-flying now. The 49ers are looking at a quarterback controversy because of one good game by Colin Kaepernick; can I say Kevin Kolb and Matt Flynn anybody? I think I should be picking the 49ers, but if they can’t choose a quarterback I don’t like it. Their defense looked tremendous against the Bears, but Campbell was under center, and Drew Brees is looking for sweet revenge in Louisiana for that NFC Divisional Playoff game last year.

RAMS @ Cardinals – The Rams looked awful against a bad Jets team last week and at home. Their defense did their best job, but the offense kept sputtering after starting over drives well. Expect a heavy dose of Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson if Danny Amendola doesn’t play. These are solid defenses, but the Cardinals cannot move the ball and we will see if this changes with Beanie Wells coming back.

Packers @ GIANTS – This is the toss-up of the week. The Packers come in on fire and the Giants come in off their bye and suffering their usual November swoon. However, the Giants are typically coming off their bye way before this. The Packers have more key injuries than the Giants, and that is going to matter. These two teams play great games and I expect no less. I only pick the Giants because they are at home and I think the Giants want to prove the Packers didn’t beat themselves last year.

PANTHERS @ Eagles – No Vick and now no Shady McCoy. The Eagles can kiss this season goodbye. The Panthers offense can go at the Eagles and the Eagles offense cannot move the ball. I recommend spot starting any defense playing the Eagles as long as Nick Foles is starting. Sorry Andy Reid, but the buck stops here.

 

UPSET ALERT – I have put the Seahawks because they are coming to the East coast at 1 P.M. The Falcons and 49ers are also on Upset Alert this week. The Texans may be in for a Thanksgiving Upset.

 

SURVIVOR PICK – Patriots (If used already: Broncos, Panthers, Bengals and Panthers).

Those are my two cents … Cash them in!

T-Catz (Anthony)

Week 11: Shave your Season!

10-3-1 … thanks a lot Rams and 49ers. The double digit wins just won’t stop coming, and I won’t stop taking them if they’re offered.

 

LEGGGO!!!!

THURSDAY

Dolphins @ BILLS – It’s cold in Buffalo. Tannehill hasn’t been somewhere this cold. Both of these offenses are turnover prone and the Bills will be without one of the heads of their two-headed monster. For some reason Joe Philbin has been chopping down on his best running back’s carries. This is a recipe for loss. The Bills will take this game in frigid Buffalo.

SUNDAY

Cardinals @ FALCONS – This Falcons team is pissed. Undefeated season gone at the hands of a despised rival, who doesn’t call themselves rivals because “they own them”. The Saints took it to the Falcons and beat them at their own game. The Cardinals are reeling and I don’t see it stopping soon, especially this week. The Falcons at home are +10 and I definitely believe they can cover. Expect some offensive fireworks for one team.

Browns @ COWBOYS – Tony Romo is fire in November, we’ll talk about December in a few weeks because we know how that typically goes. The Browns keep struggling every year with mismanagement under Holmgren. The Cowboys will most likely win their games in November and start bailing their dedication for a comeback in December.

PACKERS @ Lions – Old foes meet again in Ford Field. The Packers are coming off their bye, but still aren’t really getting healthy besides Jordy. However, they’ve been fine without the guys they are missing, but they haven’t really run across the offense that they’re about to see in the dome. The Lions lost a real heart-breaker to the Adrian Petersons last Sunday. Stafford will definitely be looking to light up the scoreboard against his Cheesehead adversary.

BENGALS @ Chiefs – Arrowhead used to be one of the toughest places to win a game, but unless Jamaal Charles has well over 100 yards, I don’t think the stadium will have that kind of affect or magic on today’s game. The Bengals embarassed the Super Bowl Champion Giants last week at home, and I’m sure Marvin Lewis won’t let his young team get head of themselves sitting at 4-5 and now with a golden opportunity to seize a playoff spots from a Steelers team that is without their quarterback. Also, good luck to the Chiefs stopping AJ Green.

Jets @ RAMS – Sorry my Jet fan friends, you’re team just looks awful. The Rams defense will overpower the Jets anemic offense. Greg Zuerlein will have at least one fifty yard field goal. The Jets need a change, somewhere and soon. The Rams probably have a bad hangover from their tie with the division leader. They had the game won, but just didn’t want it. They will be looking for blood today at home against a struggling Jets squad.

Greg the Leg

Eagles @ REDSKINS – Nick Foles is not the answer. Michael Vick is not the problem. He’s never been a quarterback who has excelled at reading the defense, but rather baiting the defense into changing their own scheme, but without a line the defense is free to do what they please and get into the backfield. Even LeSean Mccoy is having big issues this year trying to get out of the backfield while he is being hit more than 30% of the time behind the line. RGIII enjoyed his bye after losing to Cam Newton two weeks ago and let’s see how he and his coaches handled their time off.

BUCCANEERS @ Panthers – The Bucs find themselves in the fight for a wild card spot, but will have to hold off the furiously charging Saints. Josh Freeman is leading the third highest scoring offense in the league, who would’ve thunk it? He now leads a Fantasy Football juggernaut. The Panthers will be experiencing a lot of changes in a few months, and the sledding won’t get easier this weekend.

Jaguars @ TEXANS – This is a snoozer. MJD just sit back and see how this team misses you and draw up your own contract. Enough said.

SAINTS @ Raiders – Drew Brees is leading his team back from dead. They must go to the Black Hole and take it to the Raiders struggling defense. The Saints defense isn’t playing lights-out, but they are coming together at the right time and making plays when they need to. Carson Palmer still isn’t turning the ball over as much as last year, but without Darren McFadden this team lacks a big play running game and now they have to face a Saints team that’s simply on fire.

Here they come …

Chargers @ BRONCOS – Don’t expect any revenge, but don’t expect the same comeback because the Broncos will be ahead early. Philip Rivers has found some gold in a healthy Danario Alexander, but Peyton Manning is looking like a possible Comeback Player of the Year and an MVP candidate. If they Chargers want to pull out the upset and make the AFC West a race, Rivers needs to not turn the ball over  and the Chargers defense needs to stop Peyton … good luck.

Colts @ PATRIOTS – This will be a great game. Luck has shown the poise of a veteran and has won some big games already. Bill Belichick and his team have not been as sound this year and they are not better than the other two top teams in the AFC. Don’t be surprised by a shootout in Foxborough.

RAVENS @ Steelers – This would’ve been the game of the week, but without Big Ben it’s the Ravens versus the running back committee of the Steelers. They could definitely do some serious damage against the  a weak Ravens run defense. This will still be a good game, just because it’ll be physical and these teams hate one another, but I can’t see Byron Leftwich pulling out a win against the Ravens. Hopefully Big Ben gets better and thank god his injury wasn’t worse.

OUCH TOWN POPULATION YOU BRO!!

Bears @ 49ERS – This is another game with an injured quarterback not being able to play, but this backup has proven in the past few years he can win some games. Don’t be surprised if the Bears pull out a win here, but I think the Niners at home after that horrible tie will be on their game. These are two of the top defenses in the league and love to hit hard. Expect a similar game to the Bears and Texans last weekend.

UPSET ALERT – I am putting the Patriots on Upset Alert because of what Andrew Luck brings to the table. I am also putting the Bears on Upset Alert, because their record is better than the 49ers.

 

SURVIVOR PICK – Texans, no questions asked. (If Picked already:

Week 7: Average now Acceptable

Where’s Patches O’Houlihan when we need him?

Eleven teams currently sit at 3-3 in the NFL, and only two are better than that in the AFC. Take it in for a second, there’s never been a more average year. Last week I went 10-4 again and this week should only produce strong results as I try to continue this roll.

THURSDAY

Seahawks @ 49ERS – I’ll preach it again, it’s just becoming repetitive now, this is a letdown game. Great teams don’t have these, but a scrappy and average team like the Seahawks do. Tom “Terrific” couldn’t seal the deal on them last week and they were able to pull out what seemed to be another miracle win. The Niners were punched in the face by the Giants and will be looking to take some shots themselves.

SUNDAY

Redskins @ GIANTS – The Redskins offense looks great, but the defense is banged up. RG3 looks like the real deal and he can most certainly fly. Their receiving options are nothing to write home about when Pierre Garcon is hurt. The Giants are coming off a statement win in San Francisco, which snapped Eli Manning’s streak of 24 straight games with over 200 passing yards. Last year the Redskins had the Giants number and the Giants always play down to their opponents, especially at home. I believe the Giants will win because it is a must win in a division match-up if they lose they fall to 0-3 in the division.

Titans @ BILLS – How did this Titans team beat the Steelers? Beats me. The Steelers’ defense has been awful this year and Shaun Suisham missed the game winning field goal near the end of the game. Matt Hasselbeck is going to be under pressure this Sunday from a Bills’ defense that may be starting to turn the corner. Ryan Fitzpatrick simply cannot turn the ball over, he’s got a two-headed monster in the backfield now and should just rely on them.

Browns @ COLTS – Big win, Browns! Bad loss, Colts! Andrew Luck is poised to take down a worse defense than he just faced. The only problem is the weapons on the Browns overshadow those of the Colts, but guess who the home team is? Andrew Luck had a bad, BAD, game and many don’t expect to see consecutive ones of those too often and who better to keep that from happening against?

PACKERS @ Rams – The Packers just stomped out the Texans, in Houston. Rodgers showed why he was the MVP last year by tossing six touchdowns and no interceptions against one of the best defenses in the NFL . How bout a little Championship belt? The Rams played an ugly game in which they were heartbroken by the Miami Dolphins. This team has been feisty all year under Coach Fisher’s control. Don’t expect a hangover from the Pack.

The Doublecheck!

Cardinals @ VIKINGS – The Cardinals are finally coming back down to earth. They have no running game and their defense is solid, but not enough to carry them past their offensive woes. The Vikings still sit in second in the NFC North. This team ran into Hurricane Robert, who ran all over them like they were the football field, but I expect a bounce back game here against a falling Cardinals team.

SAINTS @ Buccaneers – A bye week is a nice gift after your first win during what has already been a long season. This team needs to fix its defense, and what better way than to get the leader of the defense back from injury. We will have to see how big of an impact Jonathan Vilma has in his first game of his dramatic 2012 season. The Bucs looked great last week against the Chiefs, but after all it was the Chiefs. The Bucs have not left Tampa in three weeks now, nice life. This match-up provided two great games last season, I expect no less this weekend.

COWBOYS @ Panthers – The Cowboys have to win this game, otherwise they will start to challenge the Saints for the biggest story this season, and don’t expect Jerry Jones to remain quiet. Cam Newton is defining “Sophomore Slump” right now and runs into a good Cowboys defense. The Panthers, I don’t even know. There’s so much talent on this team, but they simply don’t look like a team is the biggest problem. Cam is trying to force his throws and the defense needs to step up against a week Dallas offensive line.

Ravens @ TEXANS – The Ravens took so many hits last week in the win against the Cowboys: Injuries to Ray Lewis, Ladarius Webb and Haloti Ngata. Now they have to rush Terrell Suggs less than six months removed from an Achilles tear.  Now the weight of the team actually drops onto the shoulders of Joe Flacco. The Texans were shellacked by the Packers at home. They’ve had some time to digest it now and stay home and you better believe they’ll be ready to play the Ravens without their leader (don’t the Texans know how this feels) and their best cornerback.

Jaguars @ RAIDERS – These Raiders seem close to being able to compete in the AFC West. They went to the wire with the undefeated Falcons and played great defense the whole game against a high-powered offense. Carson Palmer is turning the ball over less, and they need more production out of Darren McFadden. The Jaguars don’t look good. Gabbert is definitely progressing, but not much. Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the best running backs in the NFL and proves it weekly, but Gabbert has no protection and gets scared when it falls on him. They also don’t have much of a defense.

Jets @ PATRIOTS – The Jets had a great win. Sanchez threw for less than 90 yards, but their was a Shonn Greene sighting. Don’t expect the same this week. Sanchez will have to throw the ball much more. The Patriots are not a happy bunch right now. A very tough and heartbreaking loss in which Tom Brady was “owned” by Richard Sherman. Expect a lot of scoring from the New Englanders.

Steelers @ BENGALS – This is the toss-up game for me. The Steelers have looked plain crappy. The defense is the worst part and as usual their offensive line can’t stay healthy and Big Ben doesn’t have a lot of time in the pocket. Rashard Mendenhall is hurt again. The Bengals offense has looked great as I said last week, but last week Brandon Weeden tore up the defense. This will be a physical game as it always is, but I will take the home team.

Lions @ BEARS – The Lions were able to pull off an upset against the Eagles with some last minute and overtime heroics. The Lions were a great team last year, but do not seem to be half that team last year. If they are going to win, Stafford will have to make the throws he made last year be mistake free against a Bears defense that takes advantage of any mistakes. The Bears have looked like a complete team, mostly on defense. Cutler, of course, has been under fire for his turnovers, but that’s Jay being Jay. This will be a great Monday Night game.

UPSET ALERT – I am putting the Giants (because of what they are capable of each year) and the Bears on upset alert. Division games are always played harder than the rest of the games, because they actually do mean more.

SURVIVOR PICK – This week I like the Patriots over the Jets as my lock. (If used already: Packers and Cowboys). 

Week 6 … They Are Who We Thought They Were

After 12-3 we had a 10-4 showing. So let’s keep this baby rolling now that teams have come into their own, but some nice surprises are still shocking the NFL World, say the Vikings and the Cardinals. On the other hand we have disappointments like the Steelers and of course the ‘Aints (Saints).

Let’s get right into it:

THURSDAY

STEELERS @ Titans – This game is already over, but I’d be completely lying to you if I told you that I had even thought of picking the Titans. Chris Johnson is still playing like crud and Matt Hasselbeck’s arm just isn’t the same anymore. Mendenhall is back, not anymore seeing as he left this game and Big Ben has been playing great, but without Polamalu this defense just isn’t the same and they showed that by allowing the Titans to march down field with 45 seconds left in the game.

SUNDAY

Raiders @ FALCONS – Matty Ryan and his Falcons keep on rolling, but they almost slipped up last week at Washington until RG3 was knocked out with a concussion. They might have escaped one of their trap games and can breathe a sigh of relief and can now refocus as they head home to play an inconsistent Raiders team, which has played the Chargers and Steelers tough, but got wiped out by the Broncos and the Dolphins. Let’s see which Raiders team shows up, but it shouldn’t matter.

BENGALS @ Browns – The Browns came out firing against the Giants last week and looked good until they came back down to Earth and Eli Manning did his thing. The Bengals had a disappointing outing last week against a pretty solid Dolphins’ defense, but their offense this year has really been the story compared to their defense last year. The Browns are hurting having to play some unexpected wide receivers, but Brandon Weeden seems to be inching along. These two teams have already played this year and it was a close game at Cincinnati, this probably won’t be much different.

Rams @ DOLPHINS – Both of these teams have been somewhat surprising. Sam Bradford has regressed more than anyone I’ve seen (maybe not Cam Newton). Their strength for years has been their running game, but they’ve been playing solid run defenses and that doesn’t change this week against the #1 ranked run defense of Miami. All the scouts and experts are saying Ryan Tannehill’s progression is amazing, especially considering a few years ago this guy was playing Wide Receiver at Texas A&M, and I agree even though the numbers may not.

Colts @ JETS – This is now a let down game for the Colts. An emotional comeback win for Chuck Pagano against many people’s Super Bowl favorite. Now they have to go on the road to New York, where Jet fans are always loud. The Jets just played their hearts out against a very good Houston Texans team, without their two best players in Revis and Holmes. This fire and this heart leads me to this pick, also no Mathis for the Colts and Freeney is still clearly rusty. Sanchez might throw over 50% this weekend.

Only a matter of time …

Lions @ EAGLES – This is a must win for the Lions and that’s why I can see them winning this game, but the Eagles are coming off an ugly loss to the Steelers in which Vick turned the ball over three more times. The Eagles defense has been sound through the first five games, but the Lions are coming off a bye in which I’m sure Jim Schwartz has gotten his team focused. Stafford has not played anywhere near the level he did last year, but don’t expect that to last very long especially when you have Calvin Johnson to throw the ball to.

Chiefs @ BUCCANEERS – Both of these teams have been disappointing and now Matt Cassel is out with a concussion, apparently to the bliss of Chiefs’ fans. Brady Quinn who hasn’t played in a football game in almost three years, must now take the reigns against a Buccaneers team coming off their bye at home. Josh Freeman has to play better in order for the Bucs to win or even keep up with the way Jamaal Charles is running, and Romeo Crennel has said that his workload will not dwindle.

Cowboys @ RAVENS – The Cowboys are coming off their bye and the Ravens are coming home from one of the ugliest football games I’ve seen against the Chiefs, a 9-6 barn-burner win. The Cowboys looked horrific in their Monday Night game against the Bears in which Romo hurled five interceptions. The road doesn’t get easier against an always ball hawking Ravens defense. The Baltimore crowd is extremely loud and the Cowboys have enough problems on offense, forget not being able to hear. Joe Flacco must have a better showing than last week if he wants us to truly believe he has taken that next step. P.S. Did anyone hear them saying Ray Lewis isn’t playing at the same level?  The guy is 37 … get over yourselves.

Bitch, please ….

BILLS @ Cardinals – The Bills have been real bad the last two weeks against the 49ers and the Patriots, especially their defense. Fitzpatrick cannot keep throwing the magnitude of interceptions that he always does, but now they have a healthy two-headed monster in the backfield and the pressure can be taken off of his shoulders as long as their expensive defense can keep the Cardinals offense off of the field, which shouldn’t be all that difficult with the running backs the Cardinals have lined up for this week’s game.

PATRIOTS @ Seahawks – The 12th man will be the quietest it’s ever been this weekend when Tom Brady and his video game offense hit the field in Seattle. The Patriots have been playing to prove they are the top tier team in the AFC, and the past two weeks have done just that. Hopefully Bill doesn’t punish Wes Welker for his public joke about “shoving it in Bill’s face.” The Seahawks’ games have all been just pure ugly, and anyone can sit here and argue with me on that, but it’s true. Russell Wilson is having a better year than Mark Sanchez, not saying much but for a small rookie it’s a plus playing with the offense he has. Pats in a blowout of course.

GIANTS @ 49ers – I will tell you why I am picking the Giants to win this game in two words … Road Warriors. The Giants go on the road and win big games, it’s just what they do. They came up short against the Eagles, literally, but they played two great games against the 49ers last year and don’t expect anything different from these two this year. The Niners have played complete football all year long and their offense went off last week against the Bills defense, but who hasn’t this year? It’s tough to pick this game, but I’ll go with the G-MEN!!!

Vikings @ REDSKINS – The Vikings have looked good and may still be overachieving. Ponder has been good, despite throwing two interceptions last week (his first two of the year). Peterson hasn’t looked the same, but who can blame him. Harvin has looked like a complete player, seriously what can’t he do? Roger Griffin III has just been concussed and may not remember who he is, but let’s go ‘Skins! Alfred Morris has been running lights out and the Skins offense is as high-powered as any with RG3 under center. Even Kirk Cousins hit Santana Moss on a wide open post last week. This game is a toss-up to me, but usually on close games I go home team. Side note: Billy Cundiff is no longer kicking with the ‘Skins (every Ravens fan curses his name with pure hate).

CHEEESEEEE!!!

PACKERS @ TexansThe Packers are hurting and now their without Greg Jennings and Cedric Benson. They can’t keep Aaron Rodgers straight-up. Rodgers hasn’t looked like his MVP-self either, although it is tough to reproduce his performance from last year. This feels like a must-win for the Pack. The Texans are also hurting without Cushing now and Ben Tate is banged up. Cushing is the center of their defense, even with the emergence of JJ Watt. The Packers will be pissed, again, after another disappointing loss.

MONDAY

BRONCOS @ Chargers – The Chargers unfortunately ran into the Saints at the wrong time as Sean Payton looked on and Drew Brees broke the consecutive games with a TD pass record. Peyton Manning looked good against the Patriots, but just couldn’t keep up with Tom Brady in the first half, which seems to be a reoccurring theme for Peyton this year. His team gets behind and he brings them back, but cannot pull off the comeback. The Chargers had finally gotten that good start to the season they wanted, but after losses to the Falcons and to the Saints they need a bounce back game, unfortunately it’s against a good division rival Broncos team that sits under .500.

UPSET ALERT – The Colts are on Upset Alert going into Metlife Stadium after a big emotional win, this is letdown time! I am also putting the Vikings and the Cardinals on Upset Alert. The Vikings have been solid, but the Skins can score a ton of points with the play of RG3. The Bills can also score a lot and the Cardinals offense can’t keep up with many teams if their defense allows points.

To Survive!

SURVIVOR PICK – Falcons, hands down. The Raiders have already gutted me once this year when I picked the Steelers against them. The Falcons have now traveled back and forth from San Diego, Washington and now back home. The good side of this is they’re playing at home. (If Picked Already: Bengals and Patriots even though I don’t like away teams.)

These are my two cents … cash ’em in!

Anthony (T Catz)

Week 5 – Keep on Rolling

12-3 Last week …

BOOM

Not to brag but sitting better on my picks this season than SI’s Peter King. The first three weeks were tough, but this past week I started 11-1 before Sunday night and went 0-2 on Sunday and Monday night. Let’s continue this strong showing.

THURSDAY

CARDINALS @ Rams- Last week I correctly predicted that the Rams would upset the Seahawks, although both teams should have been 1-2 going into that game. The Rams defense played much better than their offense as they seemed to be shying away from their #1 asset in Steven Jackson. This Rams defense is underrated and is flying under the radar more than these Cardinals. The Cardinals didn’t look like the same team in the first half against a less than average Dolphins team. The Cardinals had to make an emotional comeback and outlast the Dolphins in overtime to stay undefeated. That’s why I find this a very tough pick and think it might be the biggest toss-up game of the week.

SUNDAY

Browns @ GIANTS – The Browns are the only winless team left in the NFL and they will stay that way after this weekend. They haven’t looked great, but they’ve stayed in some games that they had no right to be in. Brandon Weeden has played like a rookie, unfortunately he’s seven years older than most rookies and has looked worse than a few of them. The Giants came within a 54 yard field goal of beating the Eagles and moving to 3-1 instead of the other way around. Still no Hakeem Nicks for the Giants, big blow to the offense, but Eli finds ways to get ‘er done and will continue Sunday.

Dolphins @ BENGALS – The Dolphins looked pretty solid in their almost overtime upset against the Cardinals Sunday, but they fell short, per usual these days. The Dolphins run defense has looked great, considering its #1 right now in the NFL, the problem is the Bengals have been throwing a lot, and for good reason, with weapons like stud receiver A.J. Green and dangerous slot man Andrew Hawkins, along with red zone threat in Jermaine Gresham. The Bengals defense hasn’t been the same as last year, but they should continue their winning ways this weekend.

PACKERS @ Colts – The Packers won a squeaker in which they were helped out by the referees (consolation for the Seahawks game?). Greg Jennings will not be playing yet again this week, which does hurt the Packers offense, but Rodgers will most certainly spread the wealth just fine. Andrew Luck will see a healthy dose of Clay Matthews in his face and he will not like it! The Packers will go into Indy and show Andrew Luck how it’s done.

RAVENS @ Chiefs – The Ravens have looked really good so far, but almost allowed the Browns to win that game on Thursday night. Flacco threw a bad interception but was pretty sharp after that and they seemed to keep the ball out of Ray Rice’s hands, chalk that up to the short week. That will change this week now that they’ve had a week and a half for rest. The Chiefs just won’t stop turning the ball over. They haven’t looked awful but their turnovers are head scratching with 15 of them, and the sledding won’t get much easier as they face the Ravens defense.

Eagles @ STEELERS – The Eagles played an offensive ugly game against the Giants until they started running the ball to the outside. They almost lost the game, but were able to pull it out after a bad offensive pass interference on Ramses Barden of the Giants. Vick looked better seeing as he didn’t turn the ball over. The Steelers are coming off of their bye, with a full load of healthy starters coming back: Polamalu, Harrison and Rashard Mendenhall. In state foes, but one needs the win more and that is the home team and that’s why I pick the Steelers.

I’M BACKKKKK

FALCONS @ Redskins – I don’t believe this will be an easy win for the Falcons and they can actually lose this game. The Falcons have looked like a complete team and Matty Ice actually lived up to his name because he was ice cold in that comeback win over the Panthers. The Redskins controlled the entire game against the Bucs until they let them take the lead by backing off the gas in the second half. Then, Robert Griffin marched his offense down the field and Billy Cundiff did what he couldn’t go all game long, hit a FG, and a clutch won at that. Falcons win here because of their weapons and the caliber of their defense right now.

Seahawks @ PANTHERS – The Panthers should have gone for it on Fourth down last week and the Falcons wouldn’t be sitting undefeated anymore, but hey that’s why they play the game. The Seahawks did not look good against the Rams, besides Lynch who has the most yards in the NFL this year. I think the Seahawks have a good physical defense, but it stops there, their offense is atrocious. The Panthers D looked good getting pressure on Ryan all day, but clearly they needed to double Roddy White, good thing is there is no one close to Roddy’s talent on the Seahawks.

BEARS @ Jaguars – I know everyone saw what the Bears did to Romo, imagine what they could do to Gabbert. The Bears defense was unstoppable and Romo is evasive, Gabbert is known for playing scared, so watch out. Cutler played pretty well in the Cowboys game against a good Cowboys defense. Maurice Jones-Drew is doing all he can, as usual, to carry this team, but it won’t be enough this Sunday.

Titans @ VIKINGS – Never thought I’d see the day where I was picking the Vikings while Christian Ponder was still their starting Q, but here I am. Adrian Peterson is going to have a field day and Ponder will continue his game managing ways. The Titans took step backward with Jake Locker’s shoulder injury and Kenny Britt’s setback. Chris Johnson had a good game against a tough Texans defense, but it’ll take more than one good game to get back to where he used to be, and the Vikings run defense has looked good so far.

Broncos @ PATRIOTS – I would like to pick the Broncos, but the Patriots can just light up a scoreboard no matter how good your defense is and how well your team has been playing. The Broncos Joe Mays will be coming back from a suspension and their defense is pumping on all cylinders now, but this is the wrong team to play when you start to. Peyton Manning has not thrown an interception since the first quarter debacle against the Falcons, not a bad stat. Tom Brady turned in a Tom Brady performance, but the biggest surprise was the explosion of the Pats run game, which we should all keep an eye on, because if they become two dimensional …. eek.

Bills @ 49ERS – The Bills had control of the Patriots in the first half forcing turnovers and not allowing Brady to slice ’em and dice ’em. Then it simply got ugly. The Bills have two solid running backs, possibly the best 1-2 punch in the NFL this year, but the 49ers don’t give up rushing yards to many. The 49ers looked great against the Jets, especially the defense and good news for them Fitzpatrick turns the ball over a lot. The 49ers defense are going to have their way with the Bills, but keep an eye on the other side.

Chargers @ SAINTS – The Chargers are playing quietly good and the Saints are playing noisily awful. Rivers has been carrying the team and Jackie battle bruised his way last week to a couple of scores. The Defense has looked good as well, but now they go into the Superdome, to play a battered Saints team. Here’s the difference maker, Sean Payton will be at this game. This will be one of those games where daddy shows up for the first time for little Johnny’s football game, and little Johnny goes HAM (Insert “Little Giants” movie quote here, please).

MONDAY

TEXANS @ Jets – Is there a team more depleted by the loss of two players, one on each side of the ball. The Jets looked like an FBS school against the 49ers last week and Santonio Holmes reaffirmed how selfish he is by throwing the ball into the hands of Carlos Rogers when he hurt his foot. HOLD ONTO THE BALL WHEN YOU GO DOWN! The Texans could be the most complete team in the NFL and they couldn’t have picked a better team to face to stay undefeated than the Jets. Tim Tebow might be looking mighty good after this game if Sanchez can’t do well with his now patchwork receiving corps after rookie Stephen Hill and Dustin Keller won’t play … OUCH.

 

UPSET ALERT – As I said be way of the Rams, (they already beat the Cardinals). Another upset to keep an eye on is the Redskins over the Falcons, just depending on how well the Skins defense plays. I’m not saying it’ll happen but let’s not forget that Arrowhead is one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL and the Ravens can falter just don’t expect it. I also wouldn’t call this an upset, but the Broncos CAN beat the Patriots.

To Survive!

SURVIVAL PICKTexans over the Jets is a lock, but most have already used the Texans I’m sure so the next best thing is the Bears over the Jaguars.. (If picked already: Vikings and Giants )