Week 15: Punch Your Tickets if You Can!

The Fantasy Football playoffs are upon us, most leagues started last week. I wanted to post my teams at the beginning of this year with how ridiculous I thought they were, but then they got better. I am in the semi-finals in four out of five leagues (thanks to three byes). So good luck to all in their respective playoff match-ups!!! A present for everyone at the bottom, but for now, onto the picks:

THURSDAY NIGHT

chargers  Chargers @ Broncos broncos – MONEY LINE: Broncos — SPREAD: Broncos (-10.5)

SUNDAY

png-19 Redskins @ Falcons falcons – MONEY LINE: Falcons — SPREAD: Redskins (-6.0)

49ers  49ers @ Buccaneers png-6 – MONEY LINE: 49ers — SPREAD: Buccaneers (+5.5)

png-10 Cardinals @ Titans png-20 – MONEY LINE: Cardinals — SPREAD: Cardinals (-2.5)

saints Saints @ Rams rams – MONEY LINE: Saints — SPREAD: Saints (-6.0)

png-2 Seahawks @ Giants png – MONEY LINE: Seahawks — SPREAD: Giants (+7.0)

png-15  Bears @ Browns png-23 – MONEY LINE: Bears — SPREAD: Bears (+1.0)

texansTexans @ Colts png-17 – MONEY LINE: Colts — SPREAD: Texans (+5.5)

png-9  Bills @ Jaguars download – MONEY LINE: Bills — SPREAD: Bills (-2.5)

png-8Patriots @ Dolphins png-22 – MONEY LINE: Patriots — SPREAD: Patriots (-2.5)

png-18Eagles @ Vikings png-12 – MONEY LINE: Eagles — SPREAD: Eagles (-5.0)

images Jets @ Panthers png-3 – MONEY LINE: Panthers — SPREAD: Jets (+11.0)

chiefsChiefs @ Raiders png-16 – MONEY LINE: Chiefs — SPREAD: Chiefs (-4.0)

packers Packers @ Cowboys png-1 – MONEY LINE: Cowboys — SPREAD: Cowboys (-7.0)

png-14  Bengals @ Steelers png-21 – MONEY LINE: Bengals — SPREAD: Steelers (+3.0)

MONDAY NIGHT

png-4  Ravens @ Lions  png-13 – MONEY LINE: Lions — SPREAD: Ravens (+6.0)

Todays_Special

UPSET SPECIAL

  • BENGALS
  • CARDINALS
  • PATRIOTS
  • BROWNS

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SURVIVOR POOL

  • COWBOYS
  • CHIEFS
  • PANTHERS
  • EAGLES
  • COLTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL Picks Week 14, 1:00 o’clock games

 

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), O/U (41.5)

Miami is 0 and 2 since 1995 when they play the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Dolphins have a 2-6 record in their last 8 games against Pittsburgh and are on a 5 game losing streak against the Steelers overall. Ben Roethlisberger seems to have a knack for winning games late in the season at home when they mean something and the Steelers are 18-6 ATS at home over the past 24 games.

Gonna go with Pittsburgh here to cover the spread.
Take the under 41.5.

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10), O/U (45)

New England plays every team tough at home and are coming in on a 5 game winning streak at home. The Browns are 1-4 against the Patriots in their last 5 meetings and are 1-4 against the spread versus the Patriots in their last 5 matchups. Cleveland is going off a tough loss to the Jaguars at home and now have to go on the road against a tough opponent in the Patriots.

Gonna take New England to cover the 10 point spread.
4 out of the past 5 games between Cleveland and New England have gone over the line. Gotta go with the OVER here.

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+2.5), O/U (44)

Kansas City and Washington have both not fared well against the spread in their last 6 games going just 1 and 5 ATS. Washington is on a 5 game losing streak against the Chiefs and haven’t covered the spread in those games either. With the Redskins struggling not looking to make the playoffs and Kansas City looking to get back on track against at team that head coach Andy Reid knows well, I expect this game to get oit of hand rather quickly.

Got to take the Chiefs to cover the 2 points.
Chiefs have gone UNDER the line in 14 of their past 20 games and Washington has gone UNDER the line in 8 of its past 12 at home. All signs pointing to the UNDER here.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5), O/U (53)

Detroit has gone under the line in 4 of their last six road games and the Eagles have also gone under the line in 5 of their past 6 homes games. Philadelphia is coming in hot and are 6 and 1 against the Lions at home in their past seven meetings. Detroit has covered the spread in the past two games against Philadelphia and with both teams looking to make a run at the playoffs its going to be a tight game. This game is going to come down to a field goal.

With that I’m going with the Eagles to win this one at home but the Lions WILL COVER the 2.5 point spread.
both defenses have been playing well of late which leads me to believe this is going UNDER the 53 point line.

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5), O/U (44.5)

The Colts have beaten the Bengals 7 times in the last 8 meeting between the two and the Colts have covered the spread in those games 5 times. Cincinnati is just 2 and 6 against the spread when playing Indy at home in their last 8 meetings. The Bengals are coming off a 17 to 10 win over the Chargers in week 13 and they had their bye week during week 12. I think the Bengals are going to hit their stride this week and put up a bunch of points against the Colts defense through the air.

Take the Colts to cover the 5.5 in a low scoring game that will go UNDER the 44.5 point line.

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), O/U (41.5)

Truly a toss up here with two rookie quarterbacks going head to head and two pretty good defenses both against the run and pass. EJ Manuel is heading back to the state where he spent his college career and will have a bunch of fans there pulling for him and that will play a factor in this game. Tampa Bay is 5 and 1 in their last six home games against the Bills and the Bills haven’t cover the spread in their past 5 games in Tampa Bay.

Gonna go with the Bills to win this game covering that 2.5 point spread.
The Bucs and the Bills have both gone OVER the line in 6 out of the last 8 games. Take the OVER again here.

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-3), O/U (41.5)

The Jets have played better of late at home this season going 4 and 2 in their past 6 home games. and are also 4 and 2 in their past 6 games against the Raiders. The Raiders will be relying on Rashad Jennings with Run DMC out with an ankle injury against the leagues best run defense so expect Matt McGloin to be throwing the ball a lot against a Jets secondary that has been struggling.

Gonna take the Raiders to COVER the spread in a nail biter with the Jets sneaking out the win but by less than 3 points.
It’s going to be a fast paced game with a lot of drives that end with long touchdowns so I’ve gotta go with the OVER 41.5 point line.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-3), O/U (46.5)

Atlanta has really struggled this year but they have picked it up of late and I believe that Mike smith’s team will finish the season strong. Green Bay is good at home but they are still without Aaron Rodgers and have been struggling to find the endzone on offense. I think that will continue this week for Green Bay’s offense and the Packers defense will have to try to find pay dirt somehow and keep Matt Ryan at bay. I like the Falcons to upset the Packers here and get a much needed win in regulation by a touchdown.

Take the Falcons against the spread.
Gonna have to go with the UNDER, as I don’t expect much scoring from the Packers offense but their defense will keep the Falcons offense under 30 points.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-6), O/U (42.5)

The Vikings have been playing surprisingly well in the past two weeks getting a win versus Chicago and tying with the Packers the week before that. Both of those games went into overtime. We could attest that to Minnesota’s defense and Adrian Peterson. The Ravens know that the Vikings are going to give AP a lot of touches and will probably challenge the Vikings wide receivers to beat them on the outside. Matt Cassel should be able to take advantage of the play action and hit his receivers and tight ends down the field. Baltimore has played really well at home all season but they haven’t scored that many points at home.

Gonna take the Ravens here to COVER the 6 point spread getting the win by a touchdown over Minnesota.
But I’m going to take the OVER on this 42.5 point line with both teams scoring into the twenties.

Week 11: Oops

So we forgot to make picks last week to help you all out, but here we are today in Week 11:

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BYE TEAMS: Cowboys & Rams

THURSDAY:

png-20 Titans @ Colts png-17 – MONEY LINE: Colts — SPREAD: Colts (-2.5)

SUNDAY:

falconsFalcons @ Bucs png-6 – MONEY LINE: Falcons — SPREAD: Falcons (E)

imagesJets @ Bills png-9 – MONEY LINE: Jets — SPREAD: Bills (-1.0)

png-13Lions @ Steelers png-21 – MONEY LINE: Lions — SPREAD: Lions (-3.0)

png-19Redskins @ Eagles png-18 – MONEY LINE: Redskins — SPREAD: Redskins (+3.0)

chargers  Chargers @ Dolphins png-22 – MONEY LINE: Chargers — SPREAD: Chargers (-1.0)

png-4  Ravens @ Bears png-15 – MONEY LINE: Ravens — SPREAD: Ravens (+2.5)

png-23  Browns @ Bengals png-14 – MONEY LINE: Bengals — SPREAD: Browns (+6.0)

png-16 Raiders @ Texans texans – MONEY LINE: Texans — SPREAD: Texans (-7.0)

png-10Cardinals @ Jaguars download – MONEY LINE: Cardinals — SPREAD: Jaguars (+6.5)

png-12Vikings @ Seahawks png-2 – MONEY LINE: Seahawks — SPREAD: Vikings (+13.5)

49ers  49ers @ Saints saints – MONEY LINE: Saints — SPREAD: Saints (-2.5)

packersPackers @ Giants png – MONEY LINE: Giants — SPREAD: Packers (+7.0)

 

 

chiefs  Chiefs @ Broncos broncos – MONEY LINE: Broncos — SPREAD: Chiefs (+7.5)

MONDAY NIGHT:

png-8Patriots @ Panthers png-3 – MONEY LINE: Patriots — SPREAD: Patriots (+2.5)

SURVIVOR PICK:

  • TEXANS
  • SEAHAWKS
  • CARDINALS

UPSET ALERT:

  • SAINTS
  • BILLS
  • EAGLES
  • JETS
  • BENGALS
  • BEARS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Week 7: Unlucky Sevens?

The Broncos didn’t blow out the Jaguars and didn’t beat the spread. John Fox probably had money on that game, I mean honestly Peyton throws a pick-6 to the Jaguars? Don’t even get me started on the New York Football (but not really) Giants. Another above .500 week for the Money Line picks at 9-6, but this was my worst week for picks Against the Spread going 2-13. I don’t want to talk about it, but hey it happens.

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THURSDAY

png-2Seahawks @ Cardinalspng-10– MONEY LINE: Seahawks — SPREAD: Cardinals (+4.5)

The Seahawks didn’t look that great against the Titans and that was at home, that’s the second week in a row the Seahawks haven’t looked like the top dog, but this could be a bounce back week. I never really like them on the road to beat the spread. Percy Harvin may be only a couple of weeks away from contributing to this team, which would make them even more dangerous. The Cardinals turned the ball over too much to compete against the Niners and Carson Palmer has not excelled as many expected in Bruce Arians’ offense.

SUNDAY

png-8Patriots @ Jetsimages – MONEY LINE: Patriots — SPREAD: Jets (+4.0)

The Patriots pulled off a stunner with five seconds left in regulation at home against the Saints. Rob Ryan was disgusted when his defense gave up the last second touchdown to Brady & Co. Aqib Talib, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola (SHOCKER!) won’t be playing Sunday most likely. The biggest hit is Talib, and as you may remember he intercepted Geno Smith twice when they played in Week Two. The Jets stayed at home after losing an ugly one to the Steelers. Smith seems to play better every other game and he won’t have to face Talib, Wilfork and Mayo now. I like the Jets with the points at home.

chargers Chargers @ Jaguars download – MONEY LINE: Chargers — SPREAD: Jaguars (+7.5)

The Chargers stopped Andrew Luck from scoring a touchdown on Monday Night and the defense looked great, or was it the Colts’ play calling? No matter Philip Rivers looks like he’s refined himself and although he might not be the quarterback he used to be he has definitely matured into a leader and he has a new play-toy in Keenan Allen. The Jags are awful, but played up to the Broncos on Sunday in Denver. They will win a game at some point, but I don’t know when, but be warned. Call me crazy but the Chargers played on Monday Night and it’s a West Coast team coming to the East Coast, I smell a loss.

texansTexans @ Chiefs  chiefs – MONEY LINE: Chiefs — SPREAD: Chiefs (-4.5)

The Texans have now lost Matt Schaub to a gruesome ankle injury, and the Houston fans cheered. Seriously??? The Texans were embarrassed by the Rams 38-13 and another pick-6 was thrown by a Texans’ quarterback. Arian Foster looks rejuvenated, but he will have a tough test against the Chiefs’ defense allowing only 10.8 points per game. Alex Smith is showing why he has the label of a game manager, but Jamaal Charles looks like a typical Andy Reid running back and that defense is fierce coming off a ten sack game against the Raiders. Chiefs at home against the lowly T.J. Yates.

png-14  Bengals @ Lions  png-13 – MONEY LINE: Lions — SPREAD: Lions (-2.5)

The Bengals were up on the Bills and turned off the heat leading to a Bills comeback, but took it in overtime. The Bengals have been great on the road the past few years, but teams always seem to have trouble in Buffalo. The Lions exploded as Brandon Weeden handed away the game. The offense is getting better as Calvin Johnson is getting healthy and Stafford found himself a tight end in Joseph Fauria (WHO????!!!). I want to like the Bengals because of their away success, but it’s hard with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush healthy.

png-9Bills @ Dolphins png-22 – MONEY LINE: Dolphins — SPREAD: Bills (+10.5)

The Bills almost pulled off a stunner at home against a good Bengals team. Now they head to warmer weather to play the Dolphins coming off their bye. The Dolphins are getting Cameron Wake back, but might not have Dannell Ellerbe. Ten points is a lot to give a 3-2 team in a division game. I know the Dolphins will win and I would play their defense in fantasy leagues. Dolphins here but I don’t know about that spread.

png-15  Bears @ Redskins png-19 – MONEY LINE: Bears— SPREAD: Bears (E)

The Bears took advantage of more Giants’ turnovers on Thursday night and have had eleven days off to prepare for the ‘Skins. The bears defense is opportunistic and the offense is clicking. The Redskins defense is miserable, but played up to the Cowboys’ offense on Sunday Night on the big stage, but I expect Cutler and Brandon Marshall to have a field day. RGIII had more runs that made him look like himself as he is starting to heal even more, but the play calling and the clock management is simply horrendous. Bears here, but I smell an upset.

png-1  Cowboys @ Eagles  png-18 – MONEY LINE: Cowboys— SPREAD: Cowboys (E)

I don’t know why I picked them. Probably because of the talent on offense and how Nick Foles fell back to earth last year after a couple of good games, but this one’s a toss-up between the top two teams in the NFC East. Dez Bryant will feast on this bad Eagles’ secondary this weekend.

rams Rams @ Panthers   png-3 – MONEY LINE: Panthers — SPREAD: Rams (+6.0)

The Rams took it to the Texans as Sam Bradford only had to throw for 116 yards last week, but tossed three touchdowns. The Rams were the beneficiaries of bad Matt Schaub play. The Panthers took it to the Vikings as Matt Cassel kept turning the ball over. The Panthers are bipolar so don’t be surprised if they lose this one easily.

png-6  Bucs @ Falcons  falcons – MONEY LINE: Falcons — SPREAD: Bucs (+7.0)

The Bucs have yet to win a game. Are they due? Maybe. Mike Glennon has begun his tenure as the Bucs starting quarterback and he looked decent against the Eagles and things won’t get harder against the Falcons bad defense. Matt Ryan comes out of his bye and will not have Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson. His offensive line is banged up and he can’t rely on his defense to keep opponents from scoring, so he is going to lean heavily on Tony Gonzalez, who came back for one last run at a title. So much for that!

49ers  49ers @ Titans png-20 – MONEY LINE: 49ers — SPREAD: 49ers (-4.5)

The 49ers housed the Cardinals last week at Arrowhead as Colin Kaepernick realized who his best receiver is, his tight end, Vernon Davis. They connected for 180 yards and two touchdowns as Vernon Davis showed us why everyone is always so high on him. The defense will enjoy this game against Ryan Fitzpatrick. When will the Kenny Britt saga end? Nobody knows, but what could they get in return for a guy who will be a free agent next year anyway?

png-23 Browns @ Packers packers – MONEY LINE: Packers — SPREAD: Packers (-10.5)

The Browns look a lot different and more turnover-prone with Weeden under center. They will probably be playing from behind most of the time so Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron will keep producing numbers. The Packers lost Randall Cobb (out for 6-8 weeks) and James Jones both to injury, even though Jones might play this week. The Packers are going to rely more on Eddie Lacy now with those injuries, but he looks more than capable. Also one of the more underrated plays I have ever seen was Eddie Lacy going down before the end zone against the Ravens to waste the clock last week.

png-4 Ravens @ Steelers png-21– MONEY LINE: Ravens — SPREAD: Ravens (+1.5)

The Ravens looked ugly against the Packers last week, but are the better team here and are getting points. They need to get the ball in Ray Rices hands 20-25 times a game and we all know that. Their defensive front will be feasting on Big Ben all day. The Steelers got their first win against the bipolar Jets in MetLife Stadium. Big Ben needs to be kept upright and Leveon Bell needs to keep pushing the pile. This is the best rivalry in football right now even with the Steelers being 1-4.

broncos  Broncos @ Colts png-17 – MONEY LINE: Broncos — SPREAD: Colts (+7.0)

Bad win for the Broncos as they failed to embarrass the Jaguars at home. But Peyton Manning is coming back to Indy this week and Jim Irsay’s quotes have just made this more memorable. Andrew Luck is coming off one of his worst performances of his young career. Trent Richardson is not living up to that first round pick price they paid. This will be a great game to watch but a more memorable one for Peyton coming back “home”. Also Von Miller comes back, and his workouts were ridiculous while he waited for his suspension to end.

MONDAY

png-12 Vikings @ Giants png – MONEY LINE: Vikings — SPREAD: Vikings (+4.0)

Josh Freeman is starting after a week to get the playbook. Adrian Peterson will probably be running a muck in MetLife. The Giants are in shambles even coming off one of their best games of the year, a loss to the Bears. Brandon Jacobs looked like Jacobs circa 2007, but he hurt his hammy and they signed Peyton Hillis. Desperation moves. Reuben Randle and Eli Manning need to get on the same page otherwise the interceptions will keep mounting.

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UPSET ALERT

  • GIANTS
  • BRONCOS
  • PATRIOTS
  • PANTHERS
  • LIONS
  • CHARGERS

survivor-logo

SURVIVOR PICK

  • SEAHAWKS
  • PACKERS
  • 49ers
  • DOLPHINS

Week 5: Bring on the Byes

7-8 Money line for the week and against the spread we went 5-9-1… Another bad week unfortunately, but let’s delve into Week 5 as more byes have come into play with the Redskins, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay all having their off week.

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THURSDAY

Bills @ Browns – MONEY LINE: Browns — SPREAD: Browns (-3.5)

Bills pulled off a shocker at home against the Ravens as their defense picked Flacco five times, The rookie quarterback-led Bills head to Cleveland where the Browns have rattled off two straight W’s with Hoyer under center now. The Browns defense will prove too much for EJ Manuel to handle.

SUNDAY

Chiefs @ Titans – MONEY LINE: Chiefs — SPREAD: Chiefs (-3.0)

The Chiefs kept Big Blue’s embarrassing season rolling as they routed them in Arrowhead. Now they head to Nashville to face a Titans coming off their own rout of a New York Team, Gang Green. The Titans lost Jake Locker for at least four weeks to a rib injury and now have to rely on Mr. Harvard, Ryan Fitzpatrick. I can’t believe this spread is only three.

Ravens @ Dolphins – MONEY LINE: Ravens — SPREAD: Ravens (+3.0)

Joe Flacco threw five interceptions and this team still almost won. Ryan Tannehill was embarrassed and constantly under duress during his Monday Night bout with the Saints’ defense. The Ravens will be ready to feast on a turnover-happy Tannehill and the Dolphins’ defense will be looking to avenge their performance against the Saints.

Jaguars @ Rams – MONEY LINE: Rams — SPREAD: Rams (+13.0)

The Jags are bad and playing for the first pick, easily demonstrated by them sticking by Blaine Gabbert. They have been monster underdogs in the two games preceding this one and are again big underdogs. I want to take the Rams, but with the way they’ve performed since pulling off a comeback win against the Cardinals, it makes it tough. Sam Bradford doesn’t have a better opportunity to put his offensive weapons on display than this game.

Patriots @ Bengals – MONEY LINE: Patriots — SPREAD: Patriots (+2.0)

Tom Terrific did this thing again on Sunday Night against the beat up Falcons’ defense. The Falcons offense only got really going in the fourth quarter as the Patriots are back to playing physical defense, but will now be without Vince Wilfork. The Bengals lost a bad game to the Browns away from home and are probably seething for that reason. I know the Bengals are very talented but Andy Dalton would have to beat Tom Brady on this night and I don’t see it.

Seahawks @ Colts – MONEY LINE: Seahawks — SPREAD: Seahawks (-3.0)

The Seahawks pulled off a miraculous comeback thanks to Matt Schaub and Richard Sherman, who play on two different teams. The Colts whooped the Jaguars, to put it nicely. People keep saying the Colts defense is underrated and we will see that get tested this week. We will also see how the Colts offense can hold up as the Seahawks get some of their premiere defenders back.

Lions @ Packers – MONEY LINE: Packers — SPREAD: Packers (-6.5)

The Lions took it to the Bears last week. The Packers were off and Lacy is coming back from his concussion. Expect a lot of points in this one. Rodgers will be on the money this week.

Saints @ Bears – MONEY LINE: Saints — SPREAD: Saints (E)

The Saints had their way with the Dolphins on Monday Night. Drew Brees is having fun this year and Rob Ryan has shocked the world by turning this defense around completely. The Bears almost had a last minute comeback against the Lions last week but came up short. Jay Cutler finally main some mistakes this year and it cost the Bears.

Eagles @ Giants – MONEY LINE: Giants — SPREAD: Eagles (+3.0)

I don’t want to talk about this game … but I have to. The Eagles offense was outdone completely by the Peyton Manning show. The Eagles question is their defense if the offense can’t score. The Giants are a mess and the season may be in the tubes already after four weeks if it wasn’t for their weak division. This team needs a run game and needs to keep Eli upright.

Panthers @ Cardinals – MONEY LINE: Panthers — SPREAD: Panthers (-2.0)

The Panthers are coming off their bye. The front seven is simply loaded and Jon Beason is getting healthy. The Cardinals beat a beaten Bucs team that has switched quarterbacks and may switch coaches soon. I don’t really like this pick with the Cardinals at home.

Chargers @ Raiders – MONEY LINE: Raiders — SPREAD: Raiders (+5.5)

The Chargers pulled off an upset at home beating the Cowboys. Philip Rivers looked decent again. The defense looked solid, but now Dwight Freeney is done for the year. Terrelle Pryor who has been surprisingly better than average this year will draw the start in a game that was moved to 11:35 ET from 4:35 thanks tot he Oakland A’s playoff game. I am going ballsy on this pick.

Broncos @ Cowboys – MONEY LINE: Broncos — SPREAD: Broncos (-6.0)

The massacres continue. Peyton Manning is toying with the league as he has yet to throw an interception. The Cowboys looked bad again against the Chargers last week. The ‘Boys have demoted Morris Claiborne and their defense does not look good, so their offense will have to keep up with Peyton & Co. against a stout Broncos’ defense.

Texans @ 49ers – MONEY LINE: 49ers — SPREAD: Texans (+7.0)

The Texans lost a heart-wrencher as Matt Schaub threw away their sure-fire 3-1 record to Richard Sherman. Arian Foster seems to be rounding back into form. The 49ers returned to beating up teams as they took it to the Rams last Thursday night. I like the 49ers because of the extra rest, but it should be close with the Texans’ defense knowing how to shut quarterbacks down.

MONDAY

Jets @ Falcons – MONEY LINE: Falcons — SPREAD: Falcons (-9.0)

The Jets looked horrible against the Titans. They have no hope this week as they will be without Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes. The Falcons almost pulled off a comeback against the Patriots. The banged-up defense will be facing a banged-up offense. I expect a blowout in Atlanta.

siren

UPSET ALERT:

  • 49ERS
  • CHARGERS
  • DOLPHINS
  • BENGALS
  • SEAHAWKS

Forrest Gump front

SURVIVOR POOL PICK

  • RAMS
  • BRONCOS
  • FALCONS
  • CHIEFS

 

 

 

Week 4: Recovery Time

Last week was a rough 5-10-1 against the spread … we got worse. 8-8 money line. I will fix this issue, but what a week that was! Too many upsets and we see a lot of teams going 0-3 that are quite puzzling, Giants and Redskins! Thursday night is here and I know you want to see the picks for Week 4!

How I and the G-Men Feel

How I and the G-Men Feel

THURSDAY

49ers @ Rams – Money Line: 49ers — Spread: Rams (+3.5)

The 49ers kept up their poor play against the Colts. Andrew Luck didn’t have a great game but he commanded it while his counterpart in Colin Kaepernick struggled mightily against a Colts team not known for its defense. Did the league figure out the 49ers’ read option over the offseason or is this just a bad stretch of games for the Niners and their 2012 hero? The Rams looked awful in Dallas last week and I expect them and their underrated defense to bounce back this Thursday night. Both teams coming off bad losses and the 49ers will probably be without Patrick Willis and Aldon Smith.

SUNDAY

The rest of these will not have blurbs for this week … sorry to disappoint!

Steelers @ Vikings – Money Line: Steelers — Spread: Steelers (E)

You sound like you’re from London!!!

Ravens @ Bills – Money Line: Ravens — Spread: Ravens (-3.5)

Ravens big win and Bills bad loss in Week 3, expect the Ravens to have fun with EJ Manuel and the injury ravaged Bills’ defense.

Bengals @ Browns – Money Line: Bengals — Spread: Bengals (-4.5)

I’ll regret this one because the Browns and Bengals always play close.

Colts @ Jaguars – Money Line: Colts — Spread: Colts (-9.0)

Big win for the Colts last week in San Fran and this is definitely a let down game, but I can’t pull myself to take the Jags.

Seahawks @ Houston – Money Line: Seahawks — Spread: Seahawks (-3.0)

‘Hawks embarrassed the Jags last week, now they go on the road to play a Houston team probably upset at the way they got manhandled by the Ravens last week.

Cardinals @ Bucs – Money Line: Cardinals — Spread: Cardinals (+2.5)

Bad loss to the Saints for the Cardinals and then bad loss to the Patriots for the Bucs who have now benched their “franchise” quarterback in favor of their newest rookie, Mike Glennon welcome to the fire.

Bears @ Lions – Money Line: Bears — Spread: Bears (+3.0)

Bears are really the underdog here? The Bears look like one of the best teams in the league as their line looks better and Jay Cutler seems under control. Sorry Lions!

Giants @ Chiefs – Money Line: Giants — Spread: Giants (+4.5)

Honey Badger don’t care!

Jets @ TItans – Money Line: Jets — Spread: Jets (+4.5)

Both MetLife teams on the road to win? Why not! (Herm Edwards voice)

Cowboys @ Chargers – Money Line: Cowboys — Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)

Don’t care, I wish the ‘Boys would lose though.

Redskins @ Raiders – Money Line: Redskins — Spread: Redskins (-3.0)

Redskins are going to get that win regardless of whether Terrelle Pryor plays for the Raiders.

Eagles @ Broncos – Money Line: Broncos — Spread: Broncos (-10.5)

High scoring, the Eagles won’t be able to keep up with how good the Broncos’ defense is.

Patriots @ Falcons – Money Line: Falcons — Spread: Falcons (-1.0)

No Gronk and Amendola means a loss for the Pats as Matt Ryan tosses it around the Georgia Dome where he loves playing.

Dolphins @ Saints – Money Line: Saints — Spread: Saints (-5.5)

I like the ‘Fins, but going into New Orleans Tannehill will struggle against the revamped Saints’ defense.

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UPSET ALERT

  • Chiefs
  • Titans

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SURVIVOR POOL PICKS

  • Colts
  • Bengals
  • Ravens
  • Redskins (ballsy at 0-3)

 

Week 3: Let’s not Overreact

12-4 Week 2 money line, against the spread we got better going 7-8-1 rather than 4-12 in Week 1. I’ll get better at the spreads, that’s a promise, but let’s keep the ball rolling on the money line picks ’cause we’re on fire. I will reiterate we make picks with spreads based on opening lines from Sundays before the respective week.

Off to Indy!!!

Off to Indy!!!

THURSDAY

Chiefs @ Eagles – Money Line: Eagles — Spread: Chiefs (+3.0)

The Eagles high powered offense was outmatched by Philip Rivers? The one weakness of the Eagles is what Chip Kelly fears the most, the offense sitting on the sidelines. If their opponent can dominate the time of possession then the Eagles could see a bunch of losses. The Chiefs defense is underrated after a solid showing against the Cowboys in Arrowhead. If Alex Smith can be the 13-3 Alex Smith from two years ago the Chiefs are headed to the playoffs.

SUNDAY

Texans @ Ravens – Money Line: Texans — Spread: Texans (+1.0)

The Texans keep needing late game comebacks and that will only work for so long. Ben Tate has been outplaying Arian Foster, but has only been getting about 25% of the snaps that the overused Foster has. I’m not saying Foster has lost a step after missing training camp and the preseason, but it wouldn’t be outrageous to think so. DeAndre Hopkins might be emerging as the second option behind Andre Johnson the Texans have always desired. The Ravens’ defense looked much better against the Browns last week, but the offense still looks off without many weapons. If they could get Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce on the field most of the time, they would be better off, but Rice might not play, tilting the scales.

Giants @ Panthers – Money Line: Giants — Spread: Giants (+2.5)

Eli Manning has 7 interceptions already and the G-Men have 10. Yikes. They haven’t looked like themselves, their pass rush can get no pressure leaving their somewhat surprisingly deep corners out on islands. The Giants need to give the ball to David Wilson and get over the fumbles, it’s time to turn the corner on it. They need to right this ship. Cam Newton and the Panthers seemed to find a stride somewhat against the Bills. We will see how the talent-less offense responds against the Giants’ defense at home. The Panthers front seven is surprisingly good, like the Giants on the road as dogs.

Rams @ Cowboys – Money Line: Cowboys — Spread: Rams (+3.5)

The Rams played catch-up and almost completed the comeback against the Falcons last week. The defense is probably seething after that embarrassing first half, which is bad for Tony Romo. I will repeat the Rams have speedsters all over the field on offense, so watch out Cowboys. The ‘Boys looked real good in the first quarter, especially the connection of Romo and Dez Bryant, but they strayed away from Bryant in the second half, leading to a bad loss. They will look to rebound in Jerry’s World, but don’t expect the run game to get going against this front seven.

Chargers @ Titans – Money Line: Titans— Spread: Chargers (+3.0)

The Chargers shocked the world with their first half performance against the Texans on MNF opening weekend. Then, they froze hell over and beat the Chip Kelly Eagles in Philly. Philip Rivers looked like vintage Philip Rivers, which is something we shouldn’t count on every week. With no run game and few weapons on offense the Chargers will have trouble finding more wins, but might not be hard pressed to find one in Nashville. Nothing to say about the Titans, except their in trouble with an unhappy Kenny Britt. The biggest challenge for the Chargers is the fact they traveled to Philly, back to San Diego, only to come back to Tennessee.

Buccaneers @ Patriots – Money Line: Patriots — Spread: Buccaneers (+7.5)

The Bucs look bad, but played the hell out of the Saints. Josh Freeman is in the doghouse of Greg Schiano and probably won’t find his way out until he starts winning some games. Darrelle Revis appeared to be there as well, but he claims they have smoothed things out. The Bucs’ defense isn’t their problem it’s the offense, but that’s the problem the Pats have right now. Tom Brady has looked pedestrian through the first two weeks and I doubt it will continue when Gronk comes back, but that probably won’t be this weekend. The defenses will keep this game close.

Browns @ Vikings – Money Line: Vikings — Spread: Vikings (-3.0)

Well this is awkward. The Browns have traded away their best player and are back into a rebuilding mode after having hopes for two games? Their defense has held up their side, but the offense has not been able to get going and won’t find any more success with Richardson gone (they have replaced him with Willis McGahee) and Brian Hoyer starting now. Adrian Peterson is salivating at the thought of his Vikings competing in a game, which results in more carries for him. Expect a heavy workload for Purple Jesus this week, but this team might need to turn the page on Christian Ponder soon.

Packers @ Bengals – Money Line: Packers — Spread: Packers (+1.5)

The Packers looked like the Packers of two years ago scoring in bunches against the Redskins last week. Rodgers looked like his MVP self and his weapons are pretty solid yet again. James Starks filled in quite nicely for Eddie Lacy as he was knocked out with a concussion (no pun intended). Their defense allowed the Redskins to make a game out of it, but shouldn’t find too much trouble against the Andy Dalton led Bengals. The Bengals defense had their way with the Steelers and Big Ben. The offense struggled yet again at the hands of Andy Dalton. All of his down-field passes seem to go out of bounds. I like the Packers offense to outrun the defense of the Bengals.

Lions @ Redskins – Money Line: Redskins — Spread: Redskins (-2.5)

The Lions lost a heart-breaker to the Cardinals in Arizona last week and now have to travel back to Washington to face an 0-2, but hungry Redskins team. Calvin Johnson exploded again on Patrick Peterson in a losing effort, while Reggie Bush came out of the game all banged up, but Joique Bell has and would fill in nicely. RGIII has not been called upon to run, but now every media outlet is saying that’s why the Redskins keep losing. We will see how the game planning has changed over the past week, but expect him to stay in the pocket a lot and sling the ball around against a bad Lions defense. This should be a shootout.

Cardinals @ Saints – Money Line: Saints — Spread: Cardinals (+7.5)

The Cardinals eeked out a late win after losing a late on against the Rams in Week One. Carson Palmer is having fun with this new offense he is playing under, but Larry Fitzgerald’s injury will not benefit him. The Cardinals defense is a solid unit, but I don’t know if they can stick with the Saints. The Saints defense has looked better, but now they just lost Patrick Robinson and are very thin every where on defense. Drew Brees will explode sooner or later, and might be in for a big game at home, but I’ll take the 7.5 points considering the Cards also play in a dome.

Falcons @ Dolphins – Money Line: Falcons — Spread: Falcons (+1.5)

Steven Jackson won’t play this week and nobody knows when he will be back, but that means Matt Ryan gets to have fun. The Falcons are 1-1 after losing a heart-breaker at the Thunderdome, but face another tough defense like last week against the Rams. The Falcons are getting thinner on the defensive side after losing Sean Witherspoon to the I.R. The Dolphins are surprisingly 2-0, having beaten the Browns and the offensive line-less Colts in Indy. Ryan Tannehill has looked improved and Lamar Miller looked better last week and will look good against a bad Falcons defense again this week. If Tannehill and Mike Wallace continue to build their rapport, this team could sneak into the playoffs.

Bills @ Jets – Money Line: Jets — Spread: Bills (+2.5)

The Bills inched out an exciting win at home last week. Now they face what’s turning into a typical Rex Ryan defense at MetLife Stadium. Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods are already on the same page as E.J. Manuel, spelling trouble for opposing defenses, especially if C.J. Spiller can get into the open field. The Bills defense just needs to stand its ground. The Jets lost an ugly one to the Patriots on Thursday Night in Foxborough. Geno Smith cannot keep making the mistakes he was baited into by Bill Belichick. The defense is how I’m going to make this pick.

Jaguars @ Seahawks – Money Line: Seahawks — Spread: Seahawks (-16.5)

The line has been at 20 as well, and I still would’ve taken it. The Jags look like the cream of the crap so far, and might be without Maurice Jones-Drew, good luck with that Jacksonville! The Seahawks had their way with the 49ers yet again last week even with Russell Wilson’s poor performance. The Seahawks might send out the backups after the third quarter in this one.

Colts @ 49ers – Money Line: 49ers — Spread: Colts (+10.5)

Post-Trent Richardson Trade this line has moved only half a point to a point. The Colts merely gave up a first round pick (most likely in the 20s) to get the former #3 pick overall from the Browns. They have massively upgraded their running back, but their line still sucks. Andrew Luck will now have a new play toy and a great 1-2 punch in Richardson and Bradshaw. The Niners were embarrassed on national television and I don’t think they liked it. I see them embarrassing the Colts to save face, but garbage time will see this game get closer.

Bears @ Steelers – Money Line: Bears — Spread: Bears (-1.0)

When a road team is favored, it’s never good for the home team. The Steelers can’t get much going on offense except from their speedy receivers on dink and dunk passes. The Steelers kept attempting to go to Jerrico Cotchery on Monday Night, which left me wondering what was Todd Haley smoking in Cinci. Their offensive line is horrendous and will struggle against a good Bears’ defense. The Bears offense pulled out a victory in the last seconds of their 31-30 win against the Vikings. The defense will have a better game against the mostly talent-less Steelers’ offense.

MONDAY

Raiders @ Broncos – Money Line: Raiders (just kidding, Broncos) — Spread: Broncos (-15.5)

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Charles Woodson made one of the best tackles I’ve ever seen on MJD last week to save a touchdown, but that’s all I can say about that game. Good luck, Raiders! Peyton Manning and the Broncos went into MetLife Stadium and dismantled the Giants and little brother Eli. The Broncos are firing on all cylinders already and Knowshown Moreno looks good right now and expect a lot of carries from him as the Broncos will be up early and often here. I can see the game finishing closer than expected because it is Monday Night Football after all.

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UPSET ALERT

This week I am putting the Dolphins, Panthers, Bengals, Titans and Redskins on Upset Alert. I know it’s a lot of teams but one of the most beloved things about the NFL is the parity every year.

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SURVIVOR PICK

This week let’s just say take the

  • Seahawks
  • Broncos
  • Vikings

No need to look at anyone else, the Vikings could lose, but the Browns will look bad this week.

Week 2: Aftermath of Week 1

kaephit

RIP Kaep … Ouch-town Population you, Bro! (Pepper Brooks)

What did we look like after Week 1 you ask? Taking a look at the money line Sports Gone HAM went a solid 11-5, but against the spread we were a truly disappointing 4-10-2 (pushes). We will get better on the spreads, but it is the first time we are trying and Week 1 saw some head-scratchers. Let’s get into week one and reflect on some injuries and Week 1 games during each match-up:

THURSDAY

Jets @ Patriots (-12.0) – Money Line: Patriots —- Spread: Jets (+12.0)

The Pats are hurting on offense and it showed last weekend. Stevan Ridley has struggled to hold onto the ball ever since the playoffs last season and now Shane Vereen, his talented backup, is out until at least Week 10. Danny Amendola is not expected to play and they are still missing Gronk. It looks like Thompkins and Edelman will be the one-two punch. The Jets pulled a win out of nowhere last Sunday as Geno Smith scrambled out of bounds and was inexplicably pushed out of bounds by Lavonte David. The Jets defense looked solid as usual last weekend, but the offense looked somewhat anemic in Smith’s first start. He did show some maturity throughout the game taking some sacks and not making horrible throws. I like their defense to keep this game somewhat close.

SUNDAY

Chargers @ Eagles (7.5) – Money Line: Eagles —- Spread: Eagles (-7.5)

The Chargers had an epic collapse with only twenty minutes to go in their Monday Night Football game against the Houston Texans. From what I saw in the first half, Philip Rivers looked pretty good and crisp after an off-season where his possible regression was called into question. The second half happened and it looked like the critics could be right, but only time will tell. The Eagles fumbled the ball on a questionable call their first drive, but dominated after that. They ran 53 plays in the first half with their new Oregon offense and looked sharp. They play fast because that’s what their top three guys have, speed and lots of it (Vick, Jackson and McCoy). Look for the Eagles to tire out the Chargers and coast in the second half.

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)  – Money Line: Ravens —- Spread: Ravens (-6.5)

The Browns looked lost at home against the Dolphins. Besides Jordan Cameron, Trent Richardson is the best receiving option and he lines up in the backfield. The Ravens defense will be angry after being embarrassed, man-handled, torched and simply run off the field by the Broncos and Peyton’s seven touchdowns on Opening Night. The Ravens offense was average with a lack of talent in their receiving corps as well. Marlon Brown seems like he might make a nice addition in the slot, but Torrey Smith can’t man the outside by himself. This will be interesting and even though I think 6.5 is a lot of points, I still go Ravens at home.

Titans @ Texans (-9.0) – Money Line: Texans —- Spread: Texans (-9)

The Titans looked good, but that was against a really bad offense that calls its home Pittsburgh. That line is horrific and made the Titans defense look like … well the Steelers’ defense. Chris Johnson found some lanes against a stout run defense, but his sledding won’t get easier against the tough Texans defense. The Texans looked disastrous in the first half against the Chargers, but turned into the AFC South champs in the second half. Andre Johnson did his Andre Johnson thing and broke 100 yards as Matt Schaub abused him in the target area. Arian Foster looked a little rusty and Ben Tate looked poised to take over when he could. Gary Kubiak said they might need to split the carries more evenly if this keeps up. I still like Texans giving the 9.

Dolphins @ Colts (-3.0) – Money Line: Colts —- Spread: Colts (-3.0)

The Dolphins beat a bad looking Browns team while leaving their most talented player on offense out of the equation, which left him pretty upset with the coaching staff. Mike Wallace needs to be given the ball because he’s a play-maker, and if their run game can’t get going he has the talent to make something out of nothing. The Colts looked flat for some reason against a bad Oakland defense. The Colts line still isn’t the best and their run game is at the bottom of the pack. If Ahmad Bradshaw can’t overtake Vic Ballard, it could mean more passes for Andrew Luck each game. At home I like the Colts

Panthers (-3.0) @ Bills – Money Line: Bills —- Spread: Bills (+3.0)

The Panthers front seven looked great against a great run team in the Seahawks. However, that team had traveled from the other corner of the country and played at 1 P.M. and I don’t care who you are, that’s never easy. The Panthers offense looked horrendous against a great defense, so try and get a read on that one. The Bills looked pretty good against the Patriots and took them to the wire, but couldn’t finish the job. E.J. Manuel had a couple of nice throws, but his defense couldn’t hold up against Tom and the Pats beat-up offense. I like the Bills at home.

Rams @ Falcons (-7.0) – Money Line: Falcons —- Spread: Rams (+7.0)

The Rams came roaring back against the Cardinals and used “Legatron” to cap off the come from behind victory. Bradford looked better than the past few years behind a revamped offensive line featuring newly acquired Jake Long. He has explosive weapons all over the field, Richardson, Austin, Givens, and Cook and he seems to be hitting it off with all. The defense is underrated and can get in the backfield as well as force turnovers. The Falcons are coming off a heart-breaker against their arch-rival Saints. Their defense played better than anyone expected with Asante Samuel, but their offense looked nothing like last years with Roddy White being banged up. I want to pick the Falcons, but their defense and the speed around Bradford worry me.

Redskins @ Packers (-7.0) – Money Line: Packers —- Spread: Redskins (+7.0)

RGIII looked rusty, but then he settled in against the Eagles defense. Alfred Morris did not look like himself on a very costly fumble, and the defense was tired after the Eagles ran their up-tempo offense. The defense will need to shore up against Rodgers and the Pack to have a shot. The P ackers put up a good fight against the reigning NFC Champions, but simply couldn’t put a cap on the Kaep. Their secondary was lit up by the likes of Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, which makes RGIII feel confident. The Pack tried to establish the run game while airing it out with Rodgers. They have a good fit in Lacy and he likes what he saw from McCoy’s performance on Monday night I’m Sure.

Cowboys @ Chiefs (-2.5) – Money Line: Cowboys —- Spread: Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys defense looked great forcing 6 turnovers against the Giants, but the offense was unable to capitalize on each turnover as the Giants were on the verge of a comeback until the final turnover did them in. Tony Romo suffered bruise ribs after getting finally hit by the Giants defensive linemen. The Cowboys still looked like the better team on Sunday and could be a force with all their talent if they can get the offense really flowing. The Chiefs looked well-rounded, but that was against the lowly Jaguars. The defense forced turnovers and got into the backfield, which could help against the Cowboys O-Line. Their defense will need to perform up to better standards to stop the Cowboys offensive weapons. I like the ‘Boys here even with Dez Bryant injured.

Vikings @ Bears (-6.0) – Money Line: Bears —- Spread: Bears (-6.0)

The Vikings pass game is going to be a problem for a while unless someone can teach Christian Ponder how to be an NFL quarterback. As was the case last year, Adrian Peterson will face a lot of “full box” situations because most teams want leave the game in Ponder’s hands. The Vikings corners looked good last week shutting down Calvin Johnson, but the whole defense was embarassed by probably the most dangerous open field player in the NFL in Reggie Bush. The Bears withstood a tough test from the Bengals last week and somehow Jay Cutler did not take a sack. Brandon Marshall and Cutler are on a whole other level right now. Their defense isn’t the same without Urlacher and Tillman was abused by AJ Green, but the Vikes don’t have that type of outside weapon so Bears here.

Saints (-3.5) @ Buccaneers – Money Line: Saints —- Spread: Saints (-3.5)

The Saints defense stopped the Falcons. Say what? The Saints offense looked pretty good with Sean Payton back, but they can definitely do more. Just wait till they hit their stride, but their defense will leak and won’t hold teams to 17 very often to be honest. The Bucs lost in shocking fashion. Their defense looked good with the addition of Revis, but the offense looked lost. Josh Freeman is in a make or break year, his contract year, and he has weapons that most quarterbacks would thrive with. They need to fix his focus otherwise it’ll be another long season to the team with pewter helmets. Saints here.

Lions (-1.0) @ Cardinals – Money Line: Cardinals —- Spread: Cardinals (1.0)

The Lions newest offensive toy looked fantastic against the Vikings; however, they can’t rely on Reggie Bush to beat better teams like the Arizona Cardinals. Calvin Johnson will needed to produce more than 4 catches for the Lions to keep winning games. Suh made another stupid mistake that cost him a ton of money. The Cardinals looked good throughout the game against a good Rams defense and Carson Palmer seems to fit Bruce Arians’ offensive scheme. Their defense looked solid as well and they have talent that’ll surprise most. I think at home the Cardinals will take this one.

Jaguars @ Raiders (-6.0) – Money Line: Raiders —- Spread: Jaguars (+6.0)

The Jaguars looked historically bad. Gabbert is out (apparently with an injury) and Henne is in. Henne produced decent numbers last year while filling in for Gabbert. I like Maurice Jones-Drew this week against a bad Raiders defense, but it’s hard to expect much from the Jags’ offense. The Raiders looked surprisingly decent against the Colts in Indy on Sunday. Until the final drive where they turned the ball over, the Raiders looked serviceable. I like the Raiders here because of the elusiveness of Terrelle Pryor, but with Henne under center I don’t like them by more than 6, but I might change my take on this game.

Broncos (-5.0) @ Giants – Money Line: Giants —- Money Line: Giants (+5.0)

The Broncos looked scary on Opening Night as Peyton tossed seven touchdowns at Mile High. Their defense, even without Von Miller and Champ Bailey looked pretty solid against the defending champs. I am worried about what the Broncos are capable of this year in a division with zero defense. The Patriots record of points scored and Tom Brady’s touchdown record have been warned. The G-Men. Where to start? Six turnovers doomed the Giants on Sunday night and no team could recover from that. Except, the Giants almost had the game won before the last turnover. The defense looked good and held Dez Bryant to two catches. If David Wilson can fix himself and the line can protect Eli, the Giants could surprise people here with a win against Big Brother. These are the games the Giants always step up and win.

49ers @ Seahawks (-3.0) – Money Line: Seahawks —- Money Line: Seahawks (-3.0)

Could be one of the games of the year. The 49ers took down the Packers using Anquan Boldin last week at Candlestick. Kaepernick proved yet again he can toss the ball around with the best of them. The Niners defense, even giving up 28 points still looked like a bunch of studs. The Seahawks looked jet-lagged in Carolina and eeked out a 12-7 win. These are probably the two best teams in the NFL and they play in the same division. I can’t wait to sit down and watch this outright brawl as this rivalry has become grounded in their hatred and their physical play. I like the Seahawks at home. Remember last year’s game?

MONDAY

Steelers @ Bengals (-7.0) – Money Line: Bengals —- Money Line: Bengals (-7.0)

The Steelers’ offense looked as bad as the Jaguars’ did. Big Ben can’t stand in the pocket for more than four seconds and his receivers, maybe excluding Antonio Brown, are a bunch of B-listers and below. He will continue to struggle without his safety blanket in Heath Miller. The defense looked more fresh against the bad Titans’ offense, but they will truly be tested against a young Bengals offense. The Bengals lost a heart-breaker to the Bears last weekend in Soldier Field. The defense wasn’t able to get to Jay Cutler which is puzzling considering the front seven this team has. The defense and the offense are both solid units making this Bengals team my favorite to still take home the AFC North. This will be a physical game, but I like the Bengals even with the big spread.

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UPSET SPECIAL

My Upset Alerts for this week fall on the BroncosLions , Chiefs, Falcons and Panthers. All of these teams are favorites, three of which are on the road. Keep an eye on these games ladies and ‘gents.

tom-hanks-in-cast-away

SURVIVOR POOL

So last week I actually took the Colts and survived by the hairs on my chin (there are none right now). For this week the teams I like, depending on who you have chosen are:

  • PATRIOTS
  • RAVENS
  • COLTS
  • TEXANS
  • EAGLES

Good luck this week to all!

Week 1: Here We Go … Football!!! And It’s on Your Phone!

We are back … with a little bit of a change this year. This year I will be picking money line wins as well as picking with the spreads according to ESPN.com and see how good we really are here at Sports Gone HAM. The NFL off-season was torturous and filled with headlines, many for the wrong reasons, I’m looking at you Aaron Hernandez. We enjoyed a great season last season so let’s all hope for a continuation of last year’s success.

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THURSDAY

Broncos @ Ravens –  Money Line: Broncos  Spread: Ravens (+7.5)

Look for the revenge factor to kick in. Both defenses have huge changes with no Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil and Champ Bailey for the Broncos; while the Ravens have lost Danell Ellerbe, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Peyton Manning has a new play toy in Wes Welker and it’ll only help.

SUNDAY

Patriots @ Bills – Money Line: Patriots — Spread: Patriots (-11.0)

EJ Manuel gets his first NFL start against a defense that would let up a ton of points to a veteran quarterback, but he’s banged up and will have to try and keep up with Tom Brady. Brady’s offense is completely revamped and even the parts that aren’t (Gronk) are banged up. Look for Brady to put up pre-Moss and Welker numbers this year at least until Gronk is 100%. The Bills could make a playoff run in a weak AFC East if Manuel plays like last year’s rookies and Spiller emerges as a top 5 running back. Pats easy here.

Bengals @ Bears – Money Line: Bears —- Spread: Bengals (-3.0)

Toss-Up! I will be picking the Bengals to win the AFC North. There is a lot of talent on this team, but it will all rest on Andy Dalton’s shoulders (see Joe Flacco). The defense is star-studded and have added a true leader and enforce in James Harrison. The Bears lost their true leader on defense in Brian Urlacher, but gained something on offense in Martellus Bennett. The Bears also have a new head coach, whom is offensive minded in Marc Trestman and their fate will rely on whichever Jay Cutler appears every game.

Dolphins @ Browns – Money Line: Browns —- Spread: Browns (-1.0)

I think the Browns are going to be competitive this year and one reason is their defense. Their defense has become much improved and they also have a new head coach. Their most talented receiver is suspended for the first two games, but Jordan Cameron is coming on like a freight train right now and if Weeden can put it where these two guys can catch it, they could surprise some people. Let’s not forget Trent Richardson who runs harder than most. The Dolphins could also be sneaky good with the acquisition of Mike Wallace as long as he runs his routes and builds a rapport with Tannehill. If Tannehill comes along as many say he appears to be the Dolphins could finish second in the AFC East.

Raiders @ Colts – Money Line: Colts —- Spread: Colts (-10.5)

Andrew Luck is going to have a big year and now he has a real running back in Ahmad Bradshaw, assuming he stays healthy. On the other side we have the Raiders, yikes. Most people can’t name anyone besides Darren McFadden on the Raiders and that never spells well for a team. Terrelle Pryor will the start over weak-armed Matt Flynn, but he has almost no weapons in this offense. The Raiders seam to be on board the “Clowney Train”.

Vikings @ Lions – Money Line: Lions —- Spread: Vikings (+5.0)

Overachievers of 2013 vs. Underachievers of 2013. The Vikings will go as “All-Day Peterson” goes. If he can reach anywhere near his production level last year, Christian Ponder and his revamped receiving corps (looks good too) will have an easier time keeping up with teams. The Lions were the biggest disappointment of last season with the talent on their team. One of the most fierce front four will hound quarterbacks again this season, but the secondary is questionable. If Stafford can stay healthy he has a new toy in Reggie Bush who is still as dangerous as anyone in the open field.

Falcons @ Saints – Money Line: Saints—- Spread: Falcons (+3.0)

Sean Payton is back and I think he should have gotten a few votes for Coach of the Year last year. This offense will be running on all cylinders with him back and a healthy Jimmy Graham. However they still look awful on defense and that doesn’t bode well against a team that has added Steven Jackson to it now. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and now Steven Jackson, good luck Rob Ryan. No Asante Samuel and a banged up Roddy … that spells trouble trying to keep up with the Saints offense.

Buccaneers @ Jets – Money Line: Buccaneers —- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Bucs didn’t add much on offense and their tight end position is ugly, but they have talent with Freeman, Jackson, Williams and Dougie. Their defense just snagged the Jets best defensive player through trade and are easily the best in their division and will be a solid squad. The Jets are a mess and Geno Smith will draw the start with little talent around him behind the same offensive line, probably worst, than Mark Sanchez was ducking behind last year. Rex Ryan’s last year how will they do. Everyone says they’re aboard the “Clowney Train”.

Titans @ Steelers – Money Line: Steelers —- Spread: Titans (+7.5)

To me the only thing that can save the Steelers this year is their defense, which has only gotten older. They drafted Le’veon Bell to keep their running game moving and keep that run first mentality going, but he is injured and that will rest on the backup Isaac Redman for now. Big Ben lost his favorite receiver in Mike Wallace and Heath Miller is also injured. The Titans are another team possibly boarding that “Clowney Train”. Chris Johnson has an improved line to run behind now, that could be dangerous for the rest of the league, but Jake Locker needs to take a step forward this year.

Seahawks @ Panthers – Money Line: Seahawks —- Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)

The Seahawks have talent all around on both sides even after Percy Harvin went down with a serious hip injury. Lots of experts are expecting big things from Russell Wilson this year after he shocked the world with his performance last season. Cam Newton took a step back last season with a ton of mistakes, but it appears they are trying to line him up under center much more this season, meaning we will get to see how much of a pure passer he really is. Jonathan Stewart is on the PUP list, which only hurts the offense, but the young linebacker core hopes to carry this defense.

Chiefs @ Jaguars – Money Line: Chiefs —- Spread: Jaguars (+4.0)

Andy Reid has a new job in Kansas City and so does Alex Smith. The only talent around him is Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe, but if you look at Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy careers, Jamaal Charles could be in for a big year under Andy Reid. The defense might be at the middle of the pack at best. The Jaguars have some talent, just not at the most important position, quarterback. Gabbert is hurt even though he was named the starter and now Chad Henne will be put into action. The defense won’t look much better than the offense, but MJD has carried the load before.

Cardinals @ Rams – Money Line: Rams —- Spread: Cardinals (+4.5)

Both of the teams are sleepers for the NFC Playoffs, the only problem is the division they play in. Bruce Arians has taken over in the desert and has a quarterback who can throw it around the yard in Carson Palmer who had over 4,000 yards last year with the Raiders. Rashard Mendenhall has been added, but they pray he can stay healthy to put a little balance in Arians’ typically unbalanced offense. The Rams have talent everywhere and are sneaky good as long as Sam Bradford can stay healthy and Daryl Richardson can replace Steven Jackson to a certain extent.

Packers @ 49ers – Money Line: 49ers —- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)

Rematch of last season’s eye opener and then the playoff eye opener. The Packers defense didn’t get any better and their offensive line got worse because of injuries. Aaron Rodgers lost Greg Jennings, but gained Eddie Lacy, but sans the Giants the run game never worked against the 49ers last season. The Niners lost Michael Crabtree, but with a full offseason under his belt Colin Kaepernick could be improved. The Niners acquired an aging Anquan Boldin, but the rapport with Vernon Davis is apparently getting better.

Giants @ Cowboys – Money Line: Giants —- Spread: Giants (+3.0)

The Giants are 4-0 in Cowboy Stadium and I hate picking against Big Blue. The line is banged up and as usual so is the defense. David Wilson is receiving a lot of pressure without Andre Brown and Eli will have it all on his shoulders again. Tony Romo has the same talent around him on offense but maybe a healthy DeMarco Murray. It will ride on Tony Romo’s mistakes and how he lives up to his new big contract. He always seems to make the mistakes when most important and the Giants have the ‘Boys number right now.

MONDAY

Eagles @ Redskins – Money Line: Redskins —- Spread: Eagles (+3.0)

Vick vs RGIII. This will be exciting as hell with two meddling defenses and the implementation of a new system in Philly. Chip Kelly is here with his Oregon system, but without the Eagles best receiver it’ll be a tough go this year. RGIII is coming off an ACL Tear and Ron Jaworski has said he doesn’t look the same when stepping up and throwing. This is the biggest tough up of the week.

Texans @ Chargers – Money Line: Texans —- Spread: Texans (+3.5)

The Texans keep looking like the best team in the regular season and then getting kicked out of the playoffs while looking like a team that doesn’t belong. Arian Foster is healthy and Ben Tate seems appear to have a breakout season. The defense might be improved with the addition of Ed Reed if he can get healthy along with Brian Cushing. The Chargers are a mess. Rivers looks like his arm is depleted and their run game is confusing. Their defense might be able to keep them in some games, but their weapons on offense don’t instill any fear.

siren

UPSET ALERT 

I am putting the Broncos on Upset Alert … Deja Vu?? The Cowboys, the Bears and the Saints have also been warned.

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SURVIVOR POOL PICK

This weeks top 3 picks are: Patriots, Colts and Texans.

Check back for this week’s recap!

5 Things We Learned: The Highly Debatable Edition

When we reflect back on the season, Week 6 will be one of the most talked about and remembered. We learned an awful lot.

1) The New York Giants love when the world picks against them. The G-Men went into this game as slight underdogs in Vegas, but were hearing all week by football experts that they were not going to beat San Francisco. Needless to say, they went in there and stomped them out 26-3. The pass-rush looked like its former self; the same guys who continually put (Matt) Ryan, Rodgers, (Alex) Smith, and Brady on their butts last season en route to the franchise’s 4th Super Bowl win.

Alex Smith looked uncomfortable in the pocket all game, and that’s a position where the Giants defense thrives. Coming into the game, Smith had only thrown 1 interception on the season. He left Sunday afternoon’s game with a season total of 4.

When the Giants get front-four pressure like they did on Sunday, they are a difficult team to move the ball on. They force you to speed up your reads, and that internal clock for a quarterback to get rid of the ball reaches it’s limit much faster than he would like.

Keep in mind that Eli had a very quiet day as he ended his streak of 24 consecutive games with at least 200-yards thrown. The ground game showed up for a second week in a row as well. And when Ahmad Bradshaw rushes for over 100 yards, the Giants don’t lose.

As fictional coach Gordon Bombay would say, “That wasn’t a game, that was a statement!”

2) The Patriots’ cockiness is annoying. If you watched the game as a Patriots fan, you have every right to be especially upset by this loss because it was a very winnable game. I do understand that Seattle is a good team, with a very elite defense, but the Patriots handed the game over. The Patriots offense is an enigma. You truly never know which one of their offensive personalities is going to show up.

On the one hand, you have this Patriots offense that can move the ball very efficiently with 5-10 yard routes and draw plays, all the way into the end zone with ease. Then, you have their arrogant offense which swears they can run any ole play at any given time and it will magically work for them. This is what fans saw during the last two drives of the 4th quarter. It looked like offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels had already declared victory, and started picking plays out of a hat.

The Patriots didn’t lose that game because they were offensively inept, they lost because their offense became arrogant with a lead that was anything but insurmountable.

Hats off to their defense though, who have been keeping them in every game so far (especially defensive lineman Chandler Jones).

3) The Atlanta Falcons are the last undefeated team left in the NFL…but they look beatable. 4 out of the Falcons 6 wins have been by a combined 18 points.

On Sunday, they were able to pull out a late fourth quarter win, despite Matt Ryan throwing 3 interceptions in the first half vs. the Raiders. The Raiders are one of the worst teams in terms of getting sacks and turnovers, so I’m certain their defensive scheme will be used as a blueprint for remaining opponents. They aren’t overpowering teams, but doing just enough offensively to secure the W and move on to the next game.

4) The Baltimore defenders are dropping like flies…or in this case birds. MLB Ray Lewis is potentially out for the season with a torn triceps, though the team won’t rule out a late season return. Corner back Lardarius Webb is also out for the season with a torn acl, and safety Ed Reed told a local Baltimore radio station that he has been playing with a torn labrum. But have no fear Ravens’ fans, outside linebacker and the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs is back on the practice field.

The long and short of that previous paragraph is that the Ravens will now have to rely on Joe Flacco more than ever. His game-managing quarterback style will no longer life them to wins this season, because he will not have that tremendous defense to fall back on. The question is: Can Joe Flacco be the elite quarterback he has been telling everyone that he is?

5) Aaron Rodgers had Aaron Rodgers on his fantasy team. Every now and again, someone in the NFL goes off and has a monstrous game out of the blue. Brian Hartline had one for the wide receivers, Jamaal Charles for the running backs, and that only left one offensive position to go, quarterback. Aaron Rodgers was ‘the guy’ on Sunday Night Football.

Now, it’s arguable that he didn’t need six touchdowns to win his team the game, but he was out there trying to make a statement. As Coach Reilly in The Mighty Ducks said, “It’s not worth winning, if you can’t win big!”

The Packers are not going down this season without a fight in them. They sense the weakness in their division, and understand that despite their slow start, they could still win it by multiple games.

Rodgers joined a special group of players that night, as one of only four quarterbacks to throw for over 330 yards, 6 passing touchdowns, and no interceptions in NFL history. The last person to accomplish this feat was Tom Brady, and he did it twice.

#BookIt
-The Giants are primed to go on a run, and have the schedule to do so.

-The Ravens aren’t winning the AFC North division anymore.

-Brady is due for one of THOSE GAMES vs. the Jets this weekend (you know what I’m talking about).

-The fight for USC quarterback Matt Barkley will come down to two teams who don’t need him: Jacksonville and Cleveland.

-CJ2K is going to get his first touchdown this Sunday! (Football gods help him if he can’t score against that horrid Bills defense)

The McKayla is Not Impressed Award for Week 6 goes to Eagles Management for firing Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo, following the Eagles defense blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter vs. the Detroit Lions.

Why am I not impressed? Because it was a bailout move. Why not fire the offensive coordinator who continues to let Vick have the ball in his hands each and every play? The Eagles have a top-3 running back in McCoy, and yet they vastly underutilize him.

Juan Castillo is out of a job for his guys blowing another fourth quarter lead, meanwhile, Steve Spagnuolo is coordinating the worst defense in the NFL right now in New Orleans, and his job seems in tact. He doesn’t appear to be on the hot seat whatsoever.

Meanwhile, in New England, Josh McDaniels is standing there giving off the impression that he asks Madden for his conservative play-calling advice, and his job security feels just fine too.

This all leads me to believe that the this is part 1 of 3-step process:
Step 1: Fire the defensive coordinator to buy your offense more time to get things rolling.
Step 2: Release Michael Vick at the end of the season because he will no longer ‘fit’ into the plan that the franchise has going forward.
Step 3: Fire Andy Reid because heaven knows this has been long overdue.